Botafogo 0-2 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Botafogo at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Botafogo vs Cuiaba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Botafogo host Cuiaba at Estádio Nilton Santos in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 31 October 2022 at 22:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Botafogo have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Botafogo at Estádio Nilton Santos this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estádio Nilton Santos this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cuiaba stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cuiaba's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On current form, Botafogo have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Botafogo, 1 for Cuiaba and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jul 2022, ended 0–2 with Cuiaba winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Botafogo trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Cuiaba trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 44% versus Cuiaba 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Botafogo 35% | Cuiaba 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 0.95 xG and Cuiaba 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 0.704 / defence 1.045 | Cuiaba attack 0.818 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 0.979. Botafogo's attack strength of 0.704 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 34 Botafogo games / 72 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 37% | Draw 33% | Cuiaba 30%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Cuiaba 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Cuiaba's lower xG of 0.84 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Botafogo at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Botafogo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.79 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Botafogo 30% | Cuiaba 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Monday 31 Oct 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 37% | Draw 33% | Cuiaba 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Botafogo 0.95 / Cuiaba 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 0.704 / def 1.045 | Cuiaba attack 0.818 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.304 / away 0.979 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Cuiaba xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Cuiaba kick off?
Botafogo vs Cuiaba kicked off at 22:00 on Monday 31 October 2022 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Cuiaba?
Botafogo 0 - 2 Cuiaba.
Where is Botafogo vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Cuiaba part of?
Botafogo vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 37% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Botafogo and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Cuiaba?
Record (1 meetings): Botafogo 0W | Draws 0 | Cuiaba 1W.
What form are Botafogo and Cuiaba in?
Botafogo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Cuiaba (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Botafogo's attack at 0.70x the league average against Cuiaba's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cuiaba's attack versus Botafogo's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
37%
2.73
33%
3.03
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Botafogo xG
Total xG
1.79
0.84
Cuiaba xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.88
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
12%
8.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 14.0 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Botafogo and 0.84 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Botafogo's recent record stands at 13W 8D 13L from 34 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five.
Cuiaba, meanwhile, have gone 8W 10D 16L across 34 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Botafogo on 1.38 PPG, Cuiaba on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Botafogo have managed 5W 4D 8L from 17 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cuiaba's away record stands at 3W 3D 11L across 17 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Botafogo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Botafogo are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.76 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Current Season
Cuiaba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 13W 8D 13L in their last 34 games (1.38 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 8W 10D 16L in their last 34 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Cuiaba away?
Botafogo's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 1.12 PPG; Cuiaba away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Botafogo and Cuiaba runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Botafogo's record when hosting Cuiaba specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Botafogo
1
Draws
3
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Cuiaba?
From 6 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 2, Cuiaba have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2024, when Botafogo 0-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Cuiaba?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Botafogo see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 41%, Cuiaba 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Botafogo and 35% for Cuiaba.
On the defensive side: Botafogo have failed to score in 41% of games; Cuiaba in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Botafogo's recent matches and 47% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Botafogo vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Botafogo's recent games and 35% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Botafogo and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Botafogo have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cuiaba cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Botafogo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba beat Botafogo 0-2 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 0.95 xG and Cuiaba 0.84 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Botafogo fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Cuiaba outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 0.70 / defence 1.04 against Cuiaba attack 0.82 / defence 1.03, drawn from 34/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 37% | Draw 33% | Cuiaba 30%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Cuiaba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 35%, Cuiaba 26%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cuiaba's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Botafogo 1.38 PPG, Cuiaba 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cuiaba win broke the near-deadlock. Botafogo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cuiaba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.