Atletico-MG 0-2 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico-MG at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atletico-MG vs Botafogo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Botafogo make the trip to Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto to face Atletico-MG in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Monday 7 November 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Current Form
Atletico-MG's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Atletico-MG's home record at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Botafogo (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Botafogo have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Atletico-MG against 1.70 for Botafogo. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Atletico-MG lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2022, ended 1–0 with Atletico-MG winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Atletico-MG — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Botafogo — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico-MG 46% versus Botafogo 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atletico-MG 34% | Botafogo 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico-MG 1.09 xG and Botafogo 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico-MG attack 0.862 / defence 0.886 | Botafogo attack 1.100 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.004. Data: 73 Atletico-MG games / 35 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico-MG 38% | Draw 30% | Botafogo 32%. Fair-value odds: Atletico-MG 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Botafogo 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atletico-MG are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico-MG if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atletico-MG 40% | Botafogo 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico-MG vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto • Kick-off: Monday 7 Nov 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico-MG 38% | Draw 30% | Botafogo 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Atletico-MG 1.09 / Botafogo 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico-MG attack 0.862 / def 0.886 | Botafogo attack 1.100 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.004 • Poisson stance: Atletico-MG (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Atletico-MG xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Botafogo xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico-MG vs Botafogo kick off?
Atletico-MG vs Botafogo kicked off at 23:00 on Monday 7 November 2022 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What was the final score in Atletico-MG vs Botafogo?
Atletico-MG 0 - 2 Botafogo.
Where is Atletico-MG vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What competition is Atletico-MG vs Botafogo part of?
Atletico-MG vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico-MG vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Atletico-MG a 38% chance of winning, Botafogo a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Atletico-MG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico-MG vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Atletico-MG and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico-MG vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico-MG and Botafogo?
Record (1 meetings): Atletico-MG 1W | Draws 0 | Botafogo 0W.
What form are Atletico-MG and Botafogo in?
Atletico-MG (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Botafogo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Atletico-MG's attack at 0.86x the league average against Botafogo's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Botafogo's attack (1.10x) against Atletico-MG's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 73/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico-MG Win
38%
2.65
30%
3.31
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Atletico-MG xG
Total xG
2.07
0.98
Botafogo xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
11%
9.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 12.4 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico-MG vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Atletico-MG and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Atletico-MG and 0.98 for Botafogo, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico-MG vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 35 outings, Atletico-MG have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 13W 13D 9L record — D-L-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Botafogo's form line: 13W 8D 14L from 35 games, 1.34 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Atletico-MG against 1.34 for Botafogo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Atletico-MG have posted 1.53 PPG from 17 outings (7W 5D 5L).
On the road, Botafogo have gone 8W 4D 5L from 17 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atletico-MG are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Botafogo are on 1.03 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Atletico-MG have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico-MG
Current Season
Botafogo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico-MG and Botafogo in coming into this match?
Atletico-MG have gone 13W 13D 9L in their last 35 games (1.49 PPG), while Botafogo have gone 13W 8D 14L in their last 35 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico-MG at home or Botafogo away?
Botafogo's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico-MG at home: 1.53 PPG; Botafogo away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Atletico-MG or Botafogo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico-MG have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Botafogo in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Botafogo won 3-0 on 8 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atletico-MG have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Botafogo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Atletico-MG
2
Draws
4
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico-MG and Botafogo?
From 9 meetings on record, Atletico-MG have won 3, Botafogo have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atletico-MG and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Atletico-MG 1-1 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Atletico-MG and Botafogo?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atletico-MG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico-MG 47%, Botafogo 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Atletico-MG) and 41% (Botafogo).
On the defensive side: Atletico-MG keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Botafogo in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico-MG home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico-MG play Botafogo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Atletico-MG's recent matches and 47% of Botafogo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico-MG vs Botafogo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Atletico-MG's recent games and 41% of Botafogo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico-MG and Botafogo tend to score early?
Atletico-MG have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Botafogo in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Botafogo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Atletico-MG.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Atletico-MG 0-2 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico-MG 1.09 xG and Botafogo 0.98 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Atletico-MG fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Botafogo outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico-MG attack 0.86 / defence 0.89 against Botafogo attack 1.10 / defence 0.97, drawn from 73/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico-MG 38% | Draw 30% | Botafogo 32%, with Atletico-MG to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Botafogo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico-MG 34%, Botafogo 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico-MG's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Botafogo's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atletico-MG 1.49 PPG, Botafogo 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Botafogo win broke the near-deadlock. Atletico-MG (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Botafogo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.