Cuiaba 1-0 Avai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cuiaba at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cuiaba vs Avai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cuiaba and Avai meet at Arena Pantanal in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 October 2022 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cuiaba's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cuiaba's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Arena Pantanal this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Cuiaba are significantly better at Arena Pantanal than their overall form suggests.
Avai (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Avai have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Cuiaba, 0 for Avai and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jul 2022, ended 2–1 with Cuiaba winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Cuiaba — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 19% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Avai — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 48% versus Avai 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cuiaba 27% | Avai 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 1.54 xG and Avai 0.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.812 / defence 0.985 | Avai attack 0.568 / defence 1.447. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 0.989. Avai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.447 — this is suppressing Cuiaba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 71 Cuiaba games / 33 Avai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 62% | Draw 25% | Avai 13%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 1.61 | Draw 4.00 | Avai 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Cuiaba (62%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Avai's lower xG of 0.55 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cuiaba are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Cuiaba 50% | Avai 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Avai | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Friday 28 Oct 2022, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 62% | Draw 25% | Avai 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 33% | xG Cuiaba 1.54 / Avai 0.55 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.812 / def 0.985 | Avai attack 0.568 / def 1.447 | league avg home 1.314 / away 0.989 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
0.55
Avai xG
33%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Avai kick off?
Cuiaba vs Avai kicked off at 00:00 on Friday 28 October 2022 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Avai?
Cuiaba 1 - 0 Avai.
Where is Cuiaba vs Avai being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Avai part of?
Cuiaba vs Avai is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Avai?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 62% chance of winning, Avai a 13% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Avai?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Cuiaba and Avai will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Avai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Avai?
Record (1 meetings): Cuiaba 1W | Draws 0 | Avai 0W.
What form are Cuiaba and Avai in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Avai (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cuiaba's attack rating (0.81) and Avai's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Avai's attack (0.57x) against Cuiaba's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.55.
These ratings are built from 71/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.6%), 0-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
62%
1.62
25%
3.97
13%
7.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.6%
Home win
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.10
0.55
Avai xG
1.62
62%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
7.63
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
2.99
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
58%
1.74
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
35%
2.82
3%
35.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 19.0 | 10.5 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.6 | 8.1 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Avai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Avai expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Cuiaba and 0.55 for Avai, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Avai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 33 outings, Cuiaba have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 7W 10D 16L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Avai's form line: 7W 7D 19L from 33 games, 0.85 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Cuiaba against 0.85 for Avai. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cuiaba have posted 1.19 PPG from 16 outings (4W 7D 5L).
On the road, Avai have gone 1W 3D 12L from 16 away games — 0.38 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.85 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Avai's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cuiaba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cuiaba are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Avai are on 0.85 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Current Season
Avai
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Avai in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 7W 10D 16L in their last 33 games (0.94 PPG), while Avai have gone 7W 7D 19L in their last 33 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Avai away?
Cuiaba's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.19 PPG; Avai away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Cuiaba
0
Draws
0
Avai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Avai?
From 2 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 2, Avai have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Avai last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2022, when Cuiaba 1-0 Avai.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Avai?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Avai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 50%, Avai 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 19% for Cuiaba and 50% for Avai.
On the defensive side: Cuiaba keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Cuiaba have failed to score in 31% of games; Avai in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Avai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Avai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 38% of Avai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Avai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 19% of Cuiaba's recent games and 50% of Avai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Avai tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Avai in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cuiaba edge out Avai 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba beat Avai 1-0 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 1.54 xG and Avai 0.55 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.81 / defence 0.98 against Avai attack 0.57 / defence 1.45, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 62% | Draw 25% | Avai 13%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 27%, Avai 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Avai's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 0.94 PPG, Avai 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cuiaba win broke the near-deadlock. Cuiaba (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Avai (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.