Juventude 0-1 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Juventude at 62%, yet in-form Coritiba provide a compelling counter-argument — this Juventude vs Coritiba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Coritiba travel to Estádio Alfredo Jaconi to take on Juventude. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 1 November 2022, 22:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juventude stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Juventude at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Juventude are significantly better at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Coritiba have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Coritiba away from home this season: 0W 0D 10L from 10 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Coritiba are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Juventude have won 0, Coritiba 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Jul 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Juventude in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Coritiba in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 56% versus Coritiba 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventude 50% | Coritiba 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.90 xG and Coritiba 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.875 / defence 1.254 | Coritiba attack 0.700 / defence 1.681. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 0.983. Coritiba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.681 — this is suppressing Juventude's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 72 Juventude games / 34 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 62% | Draw 22% | Coritiba 16%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Coritiba 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Juventude (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juventude are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Coritiba (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Juventude 70% | Coritiba 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Nov 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 62% | Draw 22% | Coritiba 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 49% | xG Juventude 1.90 / Coritiba 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.875 / def 1.254 | Coritiba attack 0.700 / def 1.681 | league avg home 1.294 / away 0.983 • Poisson stance: Juventude (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Coritiba xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Coritiba kick off?
Juventude vs Coritiba kicked off at 22:00 on Tuesday 1 November 2022 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Coritiba?
Juventude 0 - 1 Coritiba.
Where is Juventude vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Coritiba part of?
Juventude vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 62% chance of winning, Coritiba a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Juventude and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Coritiba?
Record (1 meetings): Juventude 0W | Draws 1 | Coritiba 0W.
What form are Juventude and Coritiba in?
Juventude (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Coritiba (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Juventude's attack at 0.88x the league average against Coritiba's defence at 1.68x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Coritiba's attack versus Juventude's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
62%
1.62
22%
4.60
16%
6.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.77
0.86
Coritiba xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
6.08
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
15%
6.71
Win to Nil
26%
3.83
2%
40.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 10.3 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Juventude and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Juventude and 0.86 for Coritiba, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Coritiba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, Juventude have picked up 0.62 PPG on a 3W 12D 19L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Coritiba's form line: 10W 5D 19L from 34 games, 1.03 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Coritiba are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Juventude.
Venue Form
On home soil, Juventude have posted 0.82 PPG from 17 outings (2W 8D 7L).
On the road, Coritiba have gone 0W 2D 15L from 17 away games — 0.12 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Coritiba's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventude come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Juventude are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Coritiba are on 1.00 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Current Season
Coritiba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Coritiba in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 3W 12D 19L in their last 34 games (0.62 PPG), while Coritiba have gone 10W 5D 19L in their last 34 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Coritiba away?
Juventude's home record (0.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 0.82 PPG; Coritiba away: 0.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Juventude
1
Draws
1
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Coritiba?
From 2 meetings on record, Juventude have won 0, Coritiba have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2022, when Juventude 0-1 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Coritiba?
Coritiba have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 65%, Coritiba 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Juventude) and 59% (Coritiba).
On the defensive side: Coritiba in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Coritiba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Juventude's games and 53% of Coritiba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Juventude vs Coritiba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Juventude's recent games and 59% of Coritiba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventude and Coritiba tend to score early?
Juventude have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Coritiba in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Coritiba defy the odds to beat Juventude 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coritiba beat Juventude 0-1 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.90 xG and Coritiba 0.86 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Juventude fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.88 / defence 1.25 against Coritiba attack 0.70 / defence 1.68, drawn from 72/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 62% | Draw 22% | Coritiba 16%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Coritiba win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 50%, Coritiba 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Coritiba's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Coritiba arrived the stronger side — 1.03 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Juventude (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Coritiba (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.