Bahia 2-1 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bahia at 63%, yet in-form Vasco DA Gama provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

Vasco DA Gama travel to Arena Fonte Nova to take on Bahia in Serie A (matchday 12). The game is scheduled for Thursday 27 June 2024 at 02:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Bahia stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

At home, Bahia have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Bahia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Vasco DA Gama have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Vasco DA Gama's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Vasco DA Gama — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Bahia have won 1, Vasco DA Gama 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2023, ended Bahia 1–1 Vasco DA Gama — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Bahia in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Vasco DA Gama in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 47% versus Vasco DA Gama 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 50% | Vasco DA Gama 37%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.74 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.165 / defence 0.807 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.722 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.084. Vasco DA Gama's attack rating of 0.722 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.63. Data: built from Bahia's last 49 games and Vasco DA Gama's last 49.

Result probabilities: Bahia 63% | Draw 26% | Vasco DA Gama 11%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 1.59 | Draw 3.89 | Vasco DA Gama 8.70. The model has a clear lean to Bahia (63%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Bahia as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vasco DA Gama (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bahia's last 10 home games and Vasco DA Gama's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bahia 40% (last 10 home games) | Vasco DA Gama 40% (last 10 away games).

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