Vasco DA Gama 4-1 Sao Paulo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sao Paulo at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 11 as Vasco DA Gama welcome Sao Paulo to Estádio São Januário. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 June 2024 at 01:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Vasco DA Gama have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estádio São Januário, Vasco DA Gama have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Vasco DA Gama are significantly better at Estádio São Januário than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sao Paulo stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Sao Paulo have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Vasco DA Gama) versus 1.50 (Sao Paulo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Vasco DA Gama have won 0, Sao Paulo 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Vasco DA Gama in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sao Paulo in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasco DA Gama 50% versus Sao Paulo 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Vasco DA Gama 37% | Sao Paulo 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.05 xG and Sao Paulo 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.893 / defence 1.515 | Sao Paulo attack 1.150 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.107. Data: 48 Vasco DA Gama games / 48 Sao Paulo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 19% | Draw 23% | Sao Paulo 57%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 5.26 | Draw 4.35 | Sao Paulo 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Sao Paulo (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sao Paulo are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Vasco DA Gama 60% | Sao Paulo 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio São Januário • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jun 2024, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 19% | Draw 23% | Sao Paulo 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.05 / Sao Paulo 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.893 / def 1.515 | Sao Paulo attack 1.150 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.262 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Sao Paulo (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
1.93
Sao Paulo xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo kicked off at 01:30 on Sunday 23 June 2024 at Estádio São Januário.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo?
Vasco DA Gama 4 - 1 Sao Paulo.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio São Januário.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 19% chance of winning, Sao Paulo a 57% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sao Paulo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Sao Paulo will score (BTTS).
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Sao Paulo?
Record (2 meetings): Vasco DA Gama 0W | Draws 1 | Sao Paulo 1W.
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Sao Paulo in?
Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Sao Paulo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Vasco DA Gama's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Sao Paulo's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Sao Paulo's attack versus Vasco DA Gama's defence, projects 1.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sao Paulo Win
19%
5.15
23%
4.28
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
2.97
1.93
Sao Paulo xG
5.15
19%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
15%
6.88
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
3%
35.42
20%
4.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Sao Paulo expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.93 for Sao Paulo, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vasco DA Gama come into this having played 38 games, going 12W 9D 17L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Sao Paulo sit at 1.39 PPG from 38 outings (14W 11D 13L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vasco DA Gama on 1.18 PPG, Sao Paulo on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Vasco DA Gama's home form reads 9W 2D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Sao Paulo have taken 0.58 points per game from 19 outings (1W 8D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sao Paulo's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasco DA Gama come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vasco DA Gama are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Sao Paulo are on 1.05 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Sao Paulo in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
Sao Paulo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Sao Paulo in coming into this match?
Vasco DA Gama have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 games (1.18 PPG), while Sao Paulo have gone 14W 11D 13L in their last 38 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasco DA Gama at home or Sao Paulo away?
Vasco DA Gama's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasco DA Gama at home: 1.53 PPG; Sao Paulo away: 0.58 PPG.
Have Vasco DA Gama or Sao Paulo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasco DA Gama have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Sao Paulo in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vasco DA Gama and Sao Paulo runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jun 2024, when Vasco DA Gama won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vasco DA Gama's record when hosting Sao Paulo specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Vasco DA Gama
1
Draws
3
Sao Paulo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Sao Paulo?
From 7 meetings on record, Vasco DA Gama have won 3, Sao Paulo have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Sao Paulo last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Sao Paulo.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Sao Paulo see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasco DA Gama 42%, Sao Paulo 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Vasco DA Gama) and 37% (Sao Paulo).
On the defensive side: Vasco DA Gama keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Vasco DA Gama have failed to score in 32% of games; Sao Paulo in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Sao Paulo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasco DA Gama play Sao Paulo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Vasco DA Gama's recent matches and 53% of Sao Paulo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Vasco DA Gama's recent games and 37% of Sao Paulo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasco DA Gama and Sao Paulo tend to score early?
Vasco DA Gama have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Sao Paulo in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Vasco DA Gama run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Sao Paulo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasco DA Gama beat Sao Paulo 4-1 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.05 xG and Sao Paulo 1.93 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Vasco DA Gama beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sao Paulo landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 0.89 / defence 1.51 against Sao Paulo attack 1.15 / defence 0.93, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 19% | Draw 23% | Sao Paulo 57%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Vasco DA Gama win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 37%, Sao Paulo 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Sao Paulo's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasco DA Gama 1.18 PPG, Sao Paulo 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasco DA Gama win broke the near-deadlock. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.