Botafogo 2-1 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Botafogo at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Botafogo vs RB Bragantino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
RB Bragantino make the trip to Estádio Nilton Santos to face Botafogo in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Wednesday 26 June 2024 at 23:00 UTC.
Form
Botafogo (all games): 0W 5D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Botafogo at Estádio Nilton Santos this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Botafogo are significantly better at Estádio Nilton Santos than their overall form suggests.
RB Bragantino have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, RB Bragantino have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, RB Bragantino are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Botafogo, who have won 3 of the last 4 meetings against RB Bragantino — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The historical record gives Botafogo a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Botafogo — key trading statistics (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
RB Bragantino — key trading statistics (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 43% versus RB Bragantino 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Botafogo 40% | RB Bragantino 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.35 xG and RB Bragantino 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 1.090 / defence 0.939 | RB Bragantino attack 1.055 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.103. Data: 49 Botafogo games / 49 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 41% | Draw 30% | RB Bragantino 29%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | RB Bragantino 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Botafogo dominate the H2H record, yet RB Bragantino are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Botafogo at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form RB Bragantino (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Botafogo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Botafogo 70% | RB Bragantino 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Jun 2024, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 41% | Draw 30% | RB Bragantino 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Botafogo 1.35 / RB Bragantino 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 1.090 / def 0.939 | RB Bragantino attack 1.055 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
1.09
RB Bragantino xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Botafogo vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 26 June 2024 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs RB Bragantino?
Botafogo 2 - 1 RB Bragantino.
Where is Botafogo vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs RB Bragantino part of?
Botafogo vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 41% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Botafogo and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and RB Bragantino?
Record (4 meetings): Botafogo 3W | Draws 1 | RB Bragantino 0W.
What form are Botafogo and RB Bragantino in?
Botafogo (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. RB Bragantino (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Botafogo's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against RB Bragantino's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — RB Bragantino's attack (1.05x) against Botafogo's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
41%
2.42
30%
3.38
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Botafogo xG
Total xG
2.44
1.09
RB Bragantino xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
8%
13.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Botafogo and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Botafogo and 1.09 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Botafogo come into this having played 76 games, going 33W 18D 25L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-L.
On the other side, RB Bragantino sit at 1.39 PPG from 76 outings (28W 22D 26L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Botafogo against 1.39 for RB Bragantino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Botafogo's home form reads 17W 8D 13L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, RB Bragantino have taken 1.03 points per game from 38 outings (9W 12D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Botafogo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Botafogo are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.29 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Current Season
RB Bragantino
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 33W 18D 25L in their last 76 games (1.54 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 28W 22D 26L in their last 76 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or RB Bragantino away?
Botafogo's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 1.55 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Botafogo or RB Bragantino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, RB Bragantino in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Botafogo won 4-1 on 30 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Botafogo have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against RB Bragantino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Botafogo
2
Draws
1
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and RB Bragantino?
From 10 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 7, RB Bragantino have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Botafogo 1-1 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and RB Bragantino?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 42%, RB Bragantino 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Botafogo) and 47% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Botafogo keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Botafogo have failed to score in 26% of games; RB Bragantino in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play RB Bragantino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Botafogo's recent matches and 53% of RB Bragantino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Botafogo vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Botafogo's recent games and 47% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Botafogo and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Botafogo have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Botafogo edge out RB Bragantino 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat RB Bragantino 2-1 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.35 xG and RB Bragantino 1.09 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.09 / defence 0.94 against RB Bragantino attack 1.05 / defence 0.94, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 41% | Draw 30% | RB Bragantino 29%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 40%, RB Bragantino 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Botafogo 1.54 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Botafogo win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.