Cruzeiro 0-1 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cruzeiro at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cruzeiro vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cruzeiro and Cuiaba meet at Arena do Jacaré in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 23 May 2023 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cuiaba have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cuiaba's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cruzeiro 1.16 xG and Cuiaba 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cruzeiro attack 0.773 / defence 1.079 | Cuiaba attack 0.909 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.166. Cruzeiro's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Cruzeiro games / 44 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cruzeiro 34% | Draw 33% | Cuiaba 33%. Fair-value odds: Cruzeiro 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Cuiaba 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cruzeiro are the pick at 34% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cruzeiro if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cruzeiro vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Arena do Jacaré • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 May 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cruzeiro 34% | Draw 33% | Cuiaba 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 49% | xG Cruzeiro 1.16 / Cuiaba 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Cruzeiro attack 0.773 / def 1.079 | Cuiaba attack 0.909 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Cruzeiro (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Cruzeiro xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Cuiaba xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cruzeiro vs Cuiaba kick off?
Cruzeiro vs Cuiaba kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 23 May 2023 at Arena do Jacaré.
What was the final score in Cruzeiro vs Cuiaba?
Cruzeiro 0 - 1 Cuiaba.
Where is Cruzeiro vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Jacaré.
What competition is Cruzeiro vs Cuiaba part of?
Cruzeiro vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cruzeiro vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Cruzeiro a 34% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cruzeiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cruzeiro and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Cruzeiro vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Cuiaba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cruzeiro and Cuiaba in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Cuiaba away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cruzeiro's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Cuiaba's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Cuiaba's attack (0.91x) against Cruzeiro's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 6/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cruzeiro Win
34%
2.96
33%
3.00
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Cruzeiro xG
Total xG
2.30
1.14
Cuiaba xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
11%
9.29
10%
9.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.4 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cruzeiro vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Cruzeiro and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Cruzeiro and 1.14 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Cruzeiro vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cruzeiro
Pre-Season
Cuiaba
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cruzeiro have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cuiaba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cruzeiro
2
Draws
1
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Cuiaba?
From 4 meetings on record, Cruzeiro have won 1, Cuiaba have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cruzeiro and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 22 September 2024, when Cuiaba 0-0 Cruzeiro.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cruzeiro home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Cuiaba defy the odds to beat Cruzeiro 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba beat Cruzeiro 0-1 at Arena do Jacaré, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cruzeiro 1.16 xG and Cuiaba 1.14 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cruzeiro fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cruzeiro attack 0.77 / defence 1.08 against Cuiaba attack 0.91 / defence 1.04, drawn from 6/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cruzeiro 34% | Draw 33% | Cuiaba 33%, with Cruzeiro to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Cuiaba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.