Beerschot VA 0-1 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antwerp at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beerschot VA vs Antwerp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 17 as Beerschot VA welcome Antwerp to Olympisch Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 December 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Beerschot VA — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beerschot VA's home record at Olympisch Stadion: 2W 0D 6L from 8 Jupiler Pro League appearances (0.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Antwerp have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Antwerp have gone 4W 1D 3L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.62 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Antwerp's 2.20 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Beerschot VA's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Beerschot VA trading profile (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Antwerp trading profile (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beerschot VA 38% versus Antwerp 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beerschot VA 50% | Antwerp 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 0.98 xG and Antwerp 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 0.703 / defence 0.946 | Antwerp attack 0.839 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.485. Beerschot VA's attack strength of 0.703 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Beerschot VA games / 16 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 30% | Draw 29% | Antwerp 40%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Antwerp 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Antwerp at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antwerp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beerschot VA 0% | Antwerp 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 30% | Draw 29% | Antwerp 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Beerschot VA 0.98 / Antwerp 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 0.703 / def 0.946 | Antwerp attack 0.839 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.485 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Antwerp xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beerschot VA vs Antwerp kick off?
Beerschot VA vs Antwerp kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Olympisch Stadion.
What was the final score in Beerschot VA vs Antwerp?
Beerschot VA 0 - 1 Antwerp.
Where is Beerschot VA vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs Antwerp part of?
Beerschot VA vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 30% chance of winning, Antwerp a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Beerschot VA and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Beerschot VA vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Antwerp?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Beerschot VA and Antwerp in?
Beerschot VA (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Antwerp (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Beerschot VA's attack rating (0.70) and Antwerp's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Antwerp's attack versus Beerschot VA's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
30%
3.30
29%
3.41
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
2.16
1.18
Antwerp xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
9%
10.73
15%
6.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 13.6 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 1.18 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Beerschot VA come into this having played 16 games, going 2W 3D 11L for 0.56 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Antwerp sit at 1.88 PPG from 16 outings (9W 3D 4L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antwerp carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.32 PPG clear of Beerschot VA — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Beerschot VA's home form reads 2W 0D 6L across 8 games on their own ground, a 0.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Antwerp have taken 1.62 points per game from 8 outings (4W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antwerp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beerschot VA are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.81 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Antwerp in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beerschot VA and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 2W 3D 11L in their last 16 games (0.56 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 9W 3D 4L in their last 16 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beerschot VA at home or Antwerp away?
Antwerp's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beerschot VA at home: 0.75 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Beerschot VA or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beerschot VA have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Antwerp in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Beerschot VA and Antwerp runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Sep 2024, when Antwerp won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beerschot VA's record when hosting Antwerp specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Beerschot VA
1
Draws
3
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Antwerp?
From 4 meetings on record, Beerschot VA have won 0, Antwerp have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2025, when Beerschot VA 1-1 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Beerschot VA and Antwerp?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beerschot VA 0%, Antwerp 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Beerschot VA) and 62% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beerschot VA play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Beerschot VA's recent matches and 75% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beerschot VA vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Beerschot VA's recent games and 62% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beerschot VA and Antwerp tend to score early?
Beerschot VA have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antwerp edge out Beerschot VA 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat Beerschot VA 0-1 at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 0.98 xG and Antwerp 1.18 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Beerschot VA fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.70 / defence 0.95 against Antwerp attack 0.84 / defence 1.12, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 30% | Draw 29% | Antwerp 40%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 50%, Antwerp 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beerschot VA's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Antwerp's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Antwerp arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.56. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Antwerp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.