Zulte Waregem 2-4 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zulte Waregem at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Zulte Waregem face Anderlecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Anderlecht make the trip to Elindus Arena to face Zulte Waregem in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Current Form
Zulte Waregem's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Zulte Waregem's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Zulte Waregem are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Anderlecht (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Anderlecht have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Zulte Waregem against 0.90 for Anderlecht. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Zulte Waregem edge it 3 wins to 2, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 10 Aug 2025, ended Zulte Waregem 3–2 Anderlecht — a Zulte Waregem win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Zulte Waregem — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Anderlecht — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zulte Waregem 65% versus Anderlecht 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 59% | Anderlecht 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.64 xG and Anderlecht 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.934 / defence 0.965 | Anderlecht attack 0.758 / defence 1.385. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.348. Anderlecht's defence rating of 1.385 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Zulte Waregem's projected output up. Anderlecht's attack rating of 0.758 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Data: built from Zulte Waregem's last 25 games and Anderlecht's last 55.
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 52% | Draw 25% | Anderlecht 22%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 1.91 | Draw 3.95 | Anderlecht 4.47. Zulte Waregem hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zulte Waregem at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zulte Waregem if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Zulte Waregem 50% (last 10 home games) | Anderlecht 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 26 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 52% | Draw 25% | Anderlecht 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Zulte Waregem 1.64 / Anderlecht 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.934 / def 0.965 | Anderlecht attack 0.758 / def 1.385 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Anderlecht xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht FAQs
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht?
Zulte Waregem 2 - 4 Anderlecht.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 26) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 52% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Zulte Waregem's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Anderlecht's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. Flip it around — Anderlecht's attack (0.76x) against Zulte Waregem's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from Zulte Waregem's last 25 games and Anderlecht's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
52%
1.91
25%
3.95
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.62
0.99
Anderlecht xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
20%
5.13
4%
22.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.7 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 0.99 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zulte Waregem's recent record stands at 25W 14D 15L from 54 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Anderlecht, meanwhile, have gone 24W 9D 21L across 54 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for Zulte Waregem against 1.50 for Anderlecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Zulte Waregem have managed 16W 4D 6L from their last 26 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Anderlecht's away record stands at 10W 4D 12L across their last 26 away games, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zulte Waregem come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.44 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Anderlecht in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Blended
Anderlecht
Blended
Zulte Waregem (Home) vs Anderlecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zulte Waregem
Blended
Anderlecht
Blended
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht Form FAQs
What form are Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 25W 14D 15L in their last 54 games (1.65 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 24W 9D 21L in their last 54 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Anderlecht away?
Zulte Waregem's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 2.00 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Zulte Waregem or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zulte Waregem have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Anderlecht have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Anderlecht won Anderlecht 3-0 Zulte Waregem on 19 Sep 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zulte Waregem have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Anderlecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Zulte Waregem
0
Draws
4
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Zulte Waregem have won 3, Anderlecht have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Anderlecht 3-0 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Anderlecht see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 62%, Anderlecht 23% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Zulte Waregem) and 27% (Anderlecht).
On the defensive side: Anderlecht in 38%; Anderlecht in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Zulte Waregem's recent matches and 23% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Zulte Waregem's recent games and 27% of Anderlecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Zulte Waregem's recent matches and 58% of Anderlecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Anderlecht cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Zulte Waregem.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat Zulte Waregem 2-4 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.64 xG and Anderlecht 0.99 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Anderlecht outscored their 0.99 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.93 / defence 0.96 against Anderlecht attack 0.76 / defence 1.39, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 52% | Draw 25% | Anderlecht 22%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Anderlecht win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 59%, Anderlecht 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Anderlecht's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zulte Waregem 1.65 PPG, Anderlecht 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Anderlecht win broke the near-deadlock. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Anderlecht (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.