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Poisson model favours St. Truiden (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as St. Truiden face Zulte Waregem.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 25 as St. Truiden welcome Zulte Waregem to Daio Wasabi Stayen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 February 2026 at 18:15 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have gone 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.

St. Truiden at Daio Wasabi Stayen this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Daio Wasabi Stayen this season.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Zulte Waregem stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

St. Truiden carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of St. Truiden: 4 wins from 5 previous clashes against 1 for Zulte Waregem, with 0 draws across those contests.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 2–0 with St. Truiden winning.

The historical record gives St. Truiden a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Patterns

St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Zulte Waregem in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — St. Truiden 64% and Zulte Waregem 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 60% | Zulte Waregem 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.59 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.963 / defence 0.910 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.930 / defence 1.293. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.292. Zulte Waregem bring a strong defensive rating of 1.293 — this is suppressing St. Truiden's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 St. Truiden games / 24 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: St. Truiden 48% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 25%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Zulte Waregem 4.00. St. Truiden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is St. Truiden at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 40% | Zulte Waregem 70% BTTS from recent games.

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