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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Antwerp travel to Stade Joseph Marien to take on Union St. Gilloise. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 February 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 9W 1D 0L at Stade Joseph Marien — 2.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Marien. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Union St. Gilloise are significantly better at Stade Joseph Marien than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antwerp stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Antwerp have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Union St. Gilloise at 1.70 PPG versus Antwerp's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Union St. Gilloise's 30% rate and Antwerp's 0% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
Union St. Gilloise hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 1 for Antwerp, with 3 draws in between.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Jul 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Union St. Gilloise and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (65 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Antwerp trading profile (65 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 45% versus Antwerp 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 43% | Antwerp 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.24 xG and Antwerp 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.193 / defence 0.552 | Antwerp attack 0.815 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.313. Union St. Gilloise's defence rating of 0.552 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Union St. Gilloise games / 55 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 52% | Draw 31% | Antwerp 17%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.92 | Draw 3.23 | Antwerp 5.88. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Antwerp's lower xG of 0.59 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.83 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 32%. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 30% | Antwerp 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade Joseph Marien • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (9 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 5W | Draws 3 | Antwerp 1W • Goals trend: 3.44 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Union St. Gilloise 22 – 9 Antwerp • H2H markets: BTTS 67% | Over 2.5 67% | Win rates: Union St. Gilloise 56% / Draw 33% / Antwerp 11% • Historical edge: Union St. Gilloise dominant — 5W from 9 meetings (56% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson: both agree — Union St. Gilloise favoured. H2H win rate 56%, Poisson win probability 52% • Goals contradiction: H2H averages 3.44 goals/game (67% Over historically) but Poisson total xG is only 1.83 (72% Under probability) — current defensive form is likely suppressing the model vs historical scoring patterns • BTTS tension: H2H BTTS rate 67% but Poisson model rates BTTS at only 32% — current defensive form is suppressing the historical two-way scoring pattern
📈 Recent Form
• Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-D • Antwerp (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L • Union St. Gilloise home split: 2.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.80 / GA 0.30 | CS 7 • Antwerp away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | CS 4 • Form edge: minimal separation (Union St. Gilloise 1.70 PPG vs Antwerp 1.60 PPG) • xG vs form (Union St. Gilloise): Poisson projects 1.24 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.80 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Antwerp): Poisson xG of 0.59 aligns with form scoring rate of 0.70 — consistent corroboration • Under 2.5 corroborated — form projects ~1.5 total goals, Poisson xG sum 1.83 (72% Under 2.5 probability) • BTTS: strong NO — form rates Union St. Gilloise 3/10, Antwerp 0/10; Poisson BTTS probability 32% — clean-sheet signal corroborated
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 52% | Draw 31% | Antwerp 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 32% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.24 / Antwerp 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.193 / def 0.552 | Antwerp attack 0.815 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.59
Antwerp xG
32%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Stade Joseph Marien.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Union St. Gilloise 2 - 1 Antwerp.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Marien.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 52% chance of winning, Antwerp a 17% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp?
• Record (9 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 5W | Draws 3 | Antwerp 1W • Goals trend: 3.44 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Union St. Gilloise 22 – 9 Antwerp • H2H markets: BTTS 67% | Over 2.5 67% | Win rates: Union St. Gilloise 56% / Draw 33% / Antwerp 11% • Historical edge: Union St. Gilloise dominant — 5W from 9 meetings (56% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson: both agree — Union St. Gilloise favoured. H2H win rate 56%, Poisson win probability 52% • Goals contradiction: H2H averages 3.44 goals/game (67% Over historically) but Poisson total xG is only 1.83 (72% Under probability) — current defensive form is likely suppressing the model vs historical scoring patterns • BTTS tension: H2H BTTS rate 67% but Poisson model rates BTTS at only 32% — current defensive form is suppressing the historical two-way scoring pattern
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp in?
• Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-D • Antwerp (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L • Union St. Gilloise home split: 2.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.80 / GA 0.30 | CS 7 • Antwerp away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | CS 4 • Form edge: minimal separation (Union St. Gilloise 1.70 PPG vs Antwerp 1.60 PPG) • xG vs form (Union St. Gilloise): Poisson projects 1.24 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.80 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Antwerp): Poisson xG of 0.59 aligns with form scoring rate of 0.70 — consistent corroboration • Under 2.5 corroborated — form projects ~1.5 total goals, Poisson xG sum 1.83 (72% Under 2.5 probability) • BTTS: strong NO — form rates Union St. Gilloise 3/10, Antwerp 0/10; Poisson BTTS probability 32% — clean-sheet signal corroborated
What do the betting odds say about Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture