Union St. Gilloise 2-0 Dender – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs Dender encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dender make the trip to Stade Joseph Marien to face Union St. Gilloise in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 29). The match kicks off on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 17:15 UK time.
Current Form
Union St. Gilloise's record over their last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L (2.20 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Union St. Gilloise at home: 9W 1D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Union St. Gilloise are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Dender have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Dender have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Union St. Gilloise's 2.20 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Dender's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Union St. Gilloise, 0 for Dender and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2025, ended Union St. Gilloise 1–0 Dender — a Union St. Gilloise win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Dender — key trading statistics (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 46% versus Dender 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 44% | Dender 54%). Note also that Dender surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Union St. Gilloise recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 57% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.59 xG and Dender 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.232 / defence 0.636 | Dender attack 0.766 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.287. Dender's attack rating of 0.766 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.63. Union St. Gilloise have a tight defence (rating 0.636), which is pulling Dender's projected output down. Data: built from Union St. Gilloise's last 58 games and Dender's last 58.
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 61% | Draw 25% | Dender 14%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.65 | Draw 3.99 | Dender 7.01. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (61%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Union St. Gilloise 50% (last 10 home games) | Dender 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Dender | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 29 | Venue: Stade Joseph Marien • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 17:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 61% | Draw 25% | Dender 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.59 / Dender 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.232 / def 0.636 | Dender attack 0.766 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Dender xG
37%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Dender FAQs
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Dender kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Dender kicked off at 17:15 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Stade Joseph Marien.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Dender?
Union St. Gilloise 2 - 0 Dender.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Dender being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Marien.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Dender part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Dender is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 29) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Dender?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 61% chance of winning, Dender a 14% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Dender?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Dender will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Dender have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Union St. Gilloise's attack rating (1.23) and Dender's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dender's attack (0.77x) against Union St. Gilloise's defence (0.64x) — and the away total comes out at 0.63.
These ratings are built from Union St. Gilloise's last 58 games and Dender's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
61%
1.65
25%
3.99
14%
7.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.22
0.63
Dender xG
1.65
61%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
7.01
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
53%
1.87
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
32%
3.09
3%
34.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 6.8 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 10.8 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 8.6 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Dender Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Dender?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Dender expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.63 for Dender, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Dender?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 68 outings, Union St. Gilloise have picked up 2.10 PPG on a 41W 20D 7L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Dender's form line: 14W 22D 32L from 68 games, 0.94 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-D.
Put side by side, Union St. Gilloise are the form team by 1.16 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dender.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Union St. Gilloise have posted 2.53 PPG from their last 34 home games (27W 5D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 2.10 PPG overall — Union St. Gilloise are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Dender have gone 6W 10D 18L from their last 34 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.65 conceded per game recently; Dender are on 1.12 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
Dender
Current Season
Union St. Gilloise (Home) vs Dender (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
Dender
Current Season
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Dender Form FAQs
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Dender in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 41W 20D 7L in their last 68 games (2.10 PPG), while Dender have gone 14W 22D 32L in their last 68 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Dender away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.53 PPG; Dender away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Dender been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Dender in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Union St. Gilloise and Dender, the earliest from July 2024. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won Union St. Gilloise 4-1 Dender on 1 Mar 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union St. Gilloise have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Dender — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Union St. Gilloise
1
Draws
0
Dender
Recent Meetings
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Dender H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Dender?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Union St. Gilloise have won 3, Dender have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Dender last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Union St. Gilloise 2-0 Dender.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Dender?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 41%, Dender 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Union St. Gilloise) and 65% (Dender). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Dender in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Dender away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Dender Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union St. Gilloise and Dender matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 65% of Dender's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Union St. Gilloise and Dender matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 65% of Dender's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Dender matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 76% of Dender's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dender.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Dender 2-0 at Stade Joseph Marien, Regular Season - 29, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.59 xG and Dender 0.63 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.23 / defence 0.64 against Dender attack 0.77 / defence 1.00, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 61% | Draw 25% | Dender 14%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 44%, Dender 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dender's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dender (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.