Standard Liege 0-0 KVC Westerlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KVC Westerlo at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Standard Liege face KVC Westerlo.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Standard Liege and KVC Westerlo meet at Maurice Dufrasnestadion in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Current Form
Standard Liege's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Standard Liege's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
KVC Westerlo (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, KVC Westerlo have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, KVC Westerlo edge it 3 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2025, ended Standard Liege 2–0 KVC Westerlo — a Standard Liege win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Standard Liege goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
KVC Westerlo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 35% versus KVC Westerlo 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 33% | KVC Westerlo 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 0.96 xG and KVC Westerlo 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 0.840 / defence 1.014 | KVC Westerlo attack 0.955 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.274. Data: built from Standard Liege's last 59 games and KVC Westerlo's last 59.
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 29% | Draw 29% | KVC Westerlo 43%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 3.50 | Draw 3.47 | KVC Westerlo 2.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, KVC Westerlo are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KVC Westerlo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Standard Liege's last 10 home games and KVC Westerlo's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Standard Liege 50% (last 10 home games) | KVC Westerlo 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs KVC Westerlo | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 30 | Venue: Maurice Dufrasnestadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 29% | Draw 29% | KVC Westerlo 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Standard Liege 0.96 / KVC Westerlo 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 0.840 / def 1.014 | KVC Westerlo attack 0.955 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: KVC Westerlo (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
1.23
KVC Westerlo xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Standard Liege vs KVC Westerlo FAQs
What time does Standard Liege vs KVC Westerlo kick off?
Standard Liege vs KVC Westerlo kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Maurice Dufrasnestadion.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs KVC Westerlo?
Standard Liege 0 - 0 KVC Westerlo.
Where is Standard Liege vs KVC Westerlo being played?
The match is being played at Maurice Dufrasnestadion.
What competition is Standard Liege vs KVC Westerlo part of?
Standard Liege vs KVC Westerlo is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 30) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs KVC Westerlo?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 29% chance of winning, KVC Westerlo a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making KVC Westerlo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs KVC Westerlo?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Standard Liege and KVC Westerlo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Standard Liege vs KVC Westerlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Standard Liege's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against KVC Westerlo's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. Flip it around — KVC Westerlo's attack (0.95x) against Standard Liege's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from Standard Liege's last 59 games and KVC Westerlo's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KVC Westerlo Win
29%
3.50
29%
3.47
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
2.19
1.23
KVC Westerlo xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
8%
12.00
16%
6.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 13.8 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Standard Liege vs KVC Westerlo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs KVC Westerlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and KVC Westerlo expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Standard Liege and 1.23 for KVC Westerlo, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs KVC Westerlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Standard Liege's recent record stands at 21W 22D 26L from 69 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-D in the last five.
KVC Westerlo, meanwhile, have gone 23W 20D 26L across 69 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Standard Liege against 1.29 for KVC Westerlo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Standard Liege have managed 11W 12D 11L from their last 34 home games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KVC Westerlo's away record stands at 10W 9D 15L across their last 34 away games, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Standard Liege are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; KVC Westerlo are on 1.52 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Current Season
KVC Westerlo
Current Season
Standard Liege (Home) vs KVC Westerlo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Standard Liege
Current Season
KVC Westerlo
Current Season
❓ Standard Liege vs KVC Westerlo Form FAQs
What form are Standard Liege and KVC Westerlo in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 21W 22D 26L in their last 69 games (1.23 PPG), while KVC Westerlo have gone 23W 20D 26L in their last 69 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or KVC Westerlo away?
Standard Liege's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 1.32 PPG; KVC Westerlo away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Standard Liege or KVC Westerlo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Standard Liege have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, KVC Westerlo in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KVC Westerlo won Standard Liege 0-5 KVC Westerlo on 10 May 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Standard Liege have gone 0W 2D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against KVC Westerlo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Standard Liege
3
Draws
5
KVC Westerlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Standard Liege vs KVC Westerlo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and KVC Westerlo?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Standard Liege have won 2, KVC Westerlo have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and KVC Westerlo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: KVC Westerlo 4-2 Standard Liege.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liege and KVC Westerlo?
KVC Westerlo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Standard Liege see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
KVC Westerlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 44%, KVC Westerlo 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Standard Liege) and 47% (KVC Westerlo).
On the defensive side: Standard Liege keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Standard Liege have failed to score in 35% of games; KVC Westerlo in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / KVC Westerlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Standard Liege vs KVC Westerlo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Standard Liege and KVC Westerlo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 56% of KVC Westerlo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Standard Liege and KVC Westerlo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Standard Liege's recent games and 47% of KVC Westerlo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Standard Liege and KVC Westerlo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 82% of KVC Westerlo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Standard Liege's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Standard Liege and KVC Westerlo finished level at 0-0 at Maurice Dufrasnestadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 0.96 xG and KVC Westerlo 1.23 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Standard Liege fell 1.0 short of their projected output. KVC Westerlo landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.84 / defence 1.01 against KVC Westerlo attack 0.95 / defence 0.89, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 29% | Draw 29% | KVC Westerlo 43%, with KVC Westerlo to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 33%, KVC Westerlo 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
KVC Westerlo's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Standard Liege 1.23 PPG, KVC Westerlo 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Standard Liege (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. KVC Westerlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.