Zulte Waregem 1-0 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Charleroi (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Zulte Waregem face Charleroi.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zulte Waregem and Charleroi meet at Elindus Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Zulte Waregem have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Zulte Waregem have posted 4W 2D 4L at Elindus Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Zulte Waregem are significantly better at Elindus Arena than their overall form suggests.
Charleroi (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Charleroi's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Charleroi are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Charleroi in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Zulte Waregem, 3 for Charleroi and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Zulte Waregem winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Zulte Waregem — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Charleroi — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zulte Waregem 64% and Charleroi 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 59% | Charleroi 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.15 xG and Charleroi 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.882 / defence 1.199 | Charleroi attack 1.053 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.274. Data: 29 Zulte Waregem games / 59 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 27% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 48%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Charleroi 2.08. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Zulte Waregem 60% | Charleroi 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 27% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.15 / Charleroi 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.882 / def 1.199 | Charleroi attack 1.053 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Charleroi xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
Zulte Waregem 1 - 0 Charleroi.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 27% chance of winning, Charleroi a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Charleroi?
Record (5 meetings): Zulte Waregem 1W | Draws 1 | Charleroi 3W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and Charleroi in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Charleroi (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Zulte Waregem's attack at 0.88x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (1.05x) against Zulte Waregem's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 29/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
27%
3.67
25%
4.04
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.76
1.61
Charleroi xG
3.67
27%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
5%
18.35
15%
6.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.2 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.61 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, Zulte Waregem have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 25W 14D 19L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Charleroi's form line: 22W 15D 21L from 58 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Zulte Waregem against 1.40 for Charleroi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Zulte Waregem have posted 1.86 PPG from 28 outings (16W 4D 8L).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 10W 7D 11L from 28 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zulte Waregem come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.41 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Current Season
Charleroi
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 25W 14D 19L in their last 58 games (1.53 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 22W 15D 21L in their last 58 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Charleroi away?
Zulte Waregem's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.86 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Zulte Waregem have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Charleroi won 3-0 on 10 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zulte Waregem have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Zulte Waregem
1
Draws
3
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Charleroi?
From 6 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 2, Charleroi have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Zulte Waregem 1-0 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 61%, Charleroi 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Zulte Waregem) and 54% (Charleroi). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Zulte Waregem's games and 61% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 54% of Charleroi's.
Do Zulte Waregem and Charleroi tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zulte Waregem defy the odds to beat Charleroi 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem beat Charleroi 1-0 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.15 xG and Charleroi 1.61 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Charleroi landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.88 / defence 1.20 against Charleroi attack 1.05 / defence 1.02, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 27% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 48%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Zulte Waregem win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 59%, Charleroi 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Charleroi's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zulte Waregem 1.53 PPG, Charleroi 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zulte Waregem win broke the near-deadlock. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.