St. Truiden 3-1 Seraing United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs Seraing United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St. Truiden host Seraing United at Stadion Stayen in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 January 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
St. Truiden — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's home record at Stadion Stayen: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Seraing United have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Seraing United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Seraing United's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — St. Truiden at 0.90 PPG versus Seraing United's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for St. Truiden, 1 for Seraing United and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Seraing United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
St. Truiden in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Seraing United in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 59% versus Seraing United 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 54% | Seraing United 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.74 xG and Seraing United 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.969 / defence 1.085 | Seraing United attack 0.679 / defence 1.516. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.549. Seraing United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.516 — this is suppressing St. Truiden's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 St. Truiden games / 22 Seraing United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 51% | Draw 24% | Seraing United 25%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Seraing United 4.00. St. Truiden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St. Truiden are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 80% | Seraing United 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Seraing United | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Stayen • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 51% | Draw 24% | Seraing United 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG St. Truiden 1.74 / Seraing United 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.969 / def 1.085 | Seraing United attack 0.679 / def 1.516 | league avg home 1.183 / away 1.549 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Seraing United xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Seraing United kick off?
St. Truiden vs Seraing United kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Stadion Stayen.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Seraing United?
St. Truiden 3 - 1 Seraing United.
Where is St. Truiden vs Seraing United being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Seraing United part of?
St. Truiden vs Seraing United is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Seraing United?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 51% chance of winning, Seraing United a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Seraing United?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both St. Truiden and Seraing United will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Seraing United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Seraing United?
Record (1 meetings): St. Truiden 0W | Draws 0 | Seraing United 1W.
What form are St. Truiden and Seraing United in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Seraing United (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
St. Truiden's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Seraing United's defensive record (1.52x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. The same calculation in reverse, Seraing United's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
51%
1.95
24%
4.22
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.88
1.14
Seraing United xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
16%
6.09
4%
22.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.1 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Seraing United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Seraing United expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.14 for Seraing United, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Seraing United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
St. Truiden's recent record stands at 7W 3D 12L from 22 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Seraing United, meanwhile, have gone 6W 1D 15L across 22 games — 0.86 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Seraing United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: St. Truiden on 1.09 PPG, Seraing United on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, St. Truiden have managed 3W 2D 6L from 11 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Seraing United's away record stands at 2W 0D 9L across 11 trips, a 0.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
St. Truiden are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Seraing United are on 1.05 scored and 2.09 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Seraing United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Seraing United in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 7W 3D 12L in their last 22 games (1.09 PPG), while Seraing United have gone 6W 1D 15L in their last 22 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Seraing United away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.00 PPG; Seraing United away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St. Truiden and Seraing United runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
St. Truiden go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Seraing United specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
St. Truiden
0
Draws
1
Seraing United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Seraing United?
From 4 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 3, Seraing United have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Seraing United last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when St. Truiden 2-1 Seraing United.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Seraing United?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Seraing United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 82%, Seraing United 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for St. Truiden and 73% for Seraing United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Seraing United in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Seraing United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Seraing United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of St. Truiden's games and 46% of Seraing United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs Seraing United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of St. Truiden's matches and 73% of Seraing United's.
Do St. Truiden and Seraing United tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Seraing United in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St. Truiden cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Seraing United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat Seraing United 3-1 at Stadion Stayen, Regular Season - 23, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.74 xG and Seraing United 1.14 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. St. Truiden beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.97 / defence 1.08 against Seraing United attack 0.68 / defence 1.52, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 51% | Draw 24% | Seraing United 25%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 54%, Seraing United 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Seraing United's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.09 PPG, Seraing United 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.