Charleroi 0-0 Gent – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gent at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs Gent fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charleroi host Gent at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 January 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Gent have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Gent, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gent away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Charleroi 1.50 PPG, Gent 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Charleroi's 30% rate and Gent's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
In-Play Data
Charleroi trading profile (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Gent trading profile (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 46% versus Gent 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 68% | Gent 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 0.92 xG and Gent 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.816 / defence 1.102 | Gent attack 0.720 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.535. Data: 22 Charleroi games / 22 Gent games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 28% | Draw 29% | Gent 43%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Gent 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gent are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gent offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 30% | Gent 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Gent | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 28% | Draw 29% | Gent 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Charleroi 0.92 / Gent 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.816 / def 1.102 | Gent attack 0.720 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.535 • Poisson stance: Gent (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Gent xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Gent kick off?
Charleroi vs Gent kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Gent?
Charleroi 0 - 0 Gent.
Where is Charleroi vs Gent being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Gent part of?
Charleroi vs Gent is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Gent?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 28% chance of winning, Gent a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Gent?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Charleroi and Gent will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Gent have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Gent?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charleroi and Gent in?
Charleroi (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Gent (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Charleroi's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Gent's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Gent's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
28%
3.59
29%
3.42
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.14
1.22
Gent xG
3.59
28%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
8%
12.15
17%
5.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 14.4 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Gent?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Gent expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.22 for Gent, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Gent?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charleroi's recent record stands at 10W 5D 7L from 22 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gent, meanwhile, have gone 10W 5D 7L across 22 games — 1.59 PPG, with W-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Gent is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.59 PPG, Gent on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 4W 2D 4L from 10 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gent's away record stands at 3W 3D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Charleroi are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Gent are on 1.59 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Gent
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Gent in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 10W 5D 7L in their last 22 games (1.59 PPG), while Gent have gone 10W 5D 7L in their last 22 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Gent away?
Charleroi's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.40 PPG; Gent away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Gent been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Gent in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Gent go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2024, when Gent won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charleroi's record when hosting Gent specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Charleroi
2
Draws
5
Gent
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Gent?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 3, Gent have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Gent last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Charleroi 2-3 Gent.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Gent?
Gent have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charleroi see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Gent see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Charleroi 30% BTTS, Gent 30%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Charleroi and 30% for Gent.
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Gent in 40%; Charleroi have failed to score in 40% of games; Gent in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Gent away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Gent?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Charleroi's recent matches and 30% of Gent's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Gent usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Charleroi's recent games and 30% of Gent's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Charleroi's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 23, as Charleroi and Gent drew 0-0 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 0.92 xG and Gent 1.22 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Charleroi fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Gent landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.82 / defence 1.10 against Gent attack 0.72 / defence 0.93, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 28% | Draw 29% | Gent 43%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 68%, Gent 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gent's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.59 PPG, Gent 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Gent (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.