Cercle Brugge 3-1 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Cercle Brugge at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cercle Brugge vs Zulte Waregem encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Cercle Brugge welcome Zulte Waregem to Jan Breydelstadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 January 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cercle Brugge stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Cercle Brugge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jan Breydelstadion, Cercle Brugge have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Jan Breydelstadion this season.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Zulte Waregem have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zulte Waregem's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Cercle Brugge carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cercle Brugge, 0 for Zulte Waregem and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 4–2 with Cercle Brugge winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cercle Brugge trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Zulte Waregem trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cercle Brugge 67% and Zulte Waregem 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cercle Brugge 52% | Zulte Waregem 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cercle Brugge 1.41 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cercle Brugge attack 0.867 / defence 0.949 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.768 / defence 1.355. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.509. Zulte Waregem bring a strong defensive rating of 1.355 — this is suppressing Cercle Brugge's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Cercle Brugge games / 21 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 44% | Draw 27% | Zulte Waregem 29%. Fair-value odds: Cercle Brugge 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Zulte Waregem 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cercle Brugge as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cercle Brugge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cercle Brugge 50% | Zulte Waregem 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cercle Brugge vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Jan Breydelstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jan 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 44% | Draw 27% | Zulte Waregem 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Cercle Brugge 1.41 / Zulte Waregem 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Cercle Brugge attack 0.867 / def 0.949 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.768 / def 1.355 | league avg home 1.199 / away 1.509 • Poisson stance: Cercle Brugge (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Cercle Brugge xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Zulte Waregem xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cercle Brugge vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
Cercle Brugge vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 23 January 2022 at Jan Breydelstadion.
What was the final score in Cercle Brugge vs Zulte Waregem?
Cercle Brugge 3 - 1 Zulte Waregem.
Where is Cercle Brugge vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Jan Breydelstadion.
What competition is Cercle Brugge vs Zulte Waregem part of?
Cercle Brugge vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Cercle Brugge vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives Cercle Brugge a 44% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cercle Brugge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cercle Brugge vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cercle Brugge and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will Cercle Brugge vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cercle Brugge and Zulte Waregem?
Record (1 meetings): Cercle Brugge 1W | Draws 0 | Zulte Waregem 0W.
What form are Cercle Brugge and Zulte Waregem in?
Cercle Brugge (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cercle Brugge's attack rating (0.87) and Zulte Waregem's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zulte Waregem's attack versus Cercle Brugge's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cercle Brugge Win
44%
2.27
27%
3.77
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Cercle Brugge xG
Total xG
2.51
1.10
Zulte Waregem xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
15%
6.82
7%
13.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cercle Brugge vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Cercle Brugge and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Cercle Brugge and 1.10 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Cercle Brugge vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cercle Brugge's recent record stands at 7W 4D 10L from 21 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Cercle Brugge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zulte Waregem, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 10L across 21 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cercle Brugge on 1.19 PPG, Zulte Waregem on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cercle Brugge have managed 3W 1D 6L from 10 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zulte Waregem's away record stands at 3W 3D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cercle Brugge are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.48 scored and 2.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cercle Brugge have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Zulte Waregem in 71%.
Last 21 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cercle Brugge
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cercle Brugge and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
Cercle Brugge have gone 7W 4D 10L in their last 21 games (1.19 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 6W 5D 10L in their last 21 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cercle Brugge at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Zulte Waregem's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cercle Brugge at home: 1.00 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cercle Brugge's record when hosting Zulte Waregem specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Cercle Brugge
4
Draws
1
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cercle Brugge and Zulte Waregem?
From 8 meetings on record, Cercle Brugge have won 3, Zulte Waregem have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cercle Brugge and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Cercle Brugge 2-3 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Cercle Brugge and Zulte Waregem?
Cercle Brugge have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cercle Brugge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cercle Brugge 50%, Zulte Waregem 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cercle Brugge) and 60% (Zulte Waregem). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 10% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cercle Brugge have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cercle Brugge home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cercle Brugge play Zulte Waregem?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Cercle Brugge's games and 70% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cercle Brugge vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Cercle Brugge's matches and 60% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do Cercle Brugge and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
Cercle Brugge have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cercle Brugge cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Zulte Waregem.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cercle Brugge beat Zulte Waregem 3-1 at Jan Breydelstadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cercle Brugge 1.41 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.10 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cercle Brugge beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cercle Brugge attack 0.87 / defence 0.95 against Zulte Waregem attack 0.77 / defence 1.35, drawn from 22/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cercle Brugge 44% | Draw 27% | Zulte Waregem 29%, with Cercle Brugge to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cercle Brugge 52%, Zulte Waregem 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cercle Brugge's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cercle Brugge 1.19 PPG, Zulte Waregem 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cercle Brugge win broke the near-deadlock. Cercle Brugge (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.