Kortrijk 1-1 AS Eupen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Kortrijk at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kortrijk vs AS Eupen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kortrijk host AS Eupen at Guldensporenstadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 January 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Kortrijk have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kortrijk have posted 4W 3D 2L at Guldensporenstadion — 1.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Eupen stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AS Eupen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Eupen away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Kortrijk have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Kortrijk, 0 for AS Eupen and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (21 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
AS Eupen in-play and half-time data (21 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 52% versus AS Eupen 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 38% | AS Eupen 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 1.47 xG and AS Eupen 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.856 / defence 1.034 | AS Eupen attack 0.723 / defence 1.446. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.550. AS Eupen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.446 — this is suppressing Kortrijk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Kortrijk games / 22 AS Eupen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 44% | Draw 26% | AS Eupen 30%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | AS Eupen 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kortrijk at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kortrijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Kortrijk 56% | AS Eupen 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs AS Eupen | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 44% | Draw 26% | AS Eupen 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Kortrijk 1.47 / AS Eupen 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.856 / def 1.034 | AS Eupen attack 0.723 / def 1.446 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.550 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
1.16
AS Eupen xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs AS Eupen kick off?
Kortrijk vs AS Eupen kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs AS Eupen?
Kortrijk 1 - 1 AS Eupen.
Where is Kortrijk vs AS Eupen being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs AS Eupen part of?
Kortrijk vs AS Eupen is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs AS Eupen?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 44% chance of winning, AS Eupen a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs AS Eupen?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Kortrijk and AS Eupen will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs AS Eupen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and AS Eupen?
Record (1 meetings): Kortrijk 0W | Draws 1 | AS Eupen 0W.
What form are Kortrijk and AS Eupen in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. AS Eupen (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kortrijk's attack at 0.86x the league average against AS Eupen's defence at 1.45x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AS Eupen's attack versus Kortrijk's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
44%
2.26
26%
3.87
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.63
1.16
AS Eupen xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
7%
14.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.3 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs AS Eupen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and AS Eupen expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Kortrijk and 1.16 for AS Eupen, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs AS Eupen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kortrijk's recent record stands at 8W 8D 5L from 21 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Eupen, meanwhile, have gone 7W 3D 11L across 21 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for AS Eupen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kortrijk on 1.52 PPG, AS Eupen on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kortrijk have managed 4W 3D 2L from 9 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Eupen's away record stands at 3W 0D 6L across 9 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kortrijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kortrijk are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; AS Eupen are on 1.33 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Blended
AS Eupen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and AS Eupen in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 8W 8D 5L in their last 21 games (1.52 PPG), while AS Eupen have gone 7W 3D 11L in their last 21 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or AS Eupen away?
Kortrijk's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 1.67 PPG; AS Eupen away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Kortrijk or AS Eupen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kortrijk have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, AS Eupen in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kortrijk and AS Eupen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Jupiler Pro League, Challenger Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kortrijk's record when hosting AS Eupen specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Kortrijk
5
Draws
2
AS Eupen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and AS Eupen?
From 10 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 3, AS Eupen have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and AS Eupen last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when AS Eupen 1-0 Kortrijk.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and AS Eupen?
Kortrijk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 56%, AS Eupen 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Kortrijk) and 67% (AS Eupen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kortrijk keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; AS Eupen in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / AS Eupen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play AS Eupen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 44% of AS Eupen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kortrijk vs AS Eupen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Kortrijk's matches and 67% of AS Eupen's.
Do Kortrijk and AS Eupen tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, AS Eupen in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kortrijk and AS Eupen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 23, as Kortrijk and AS Eupen drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.47 xG and AS Eupen 1.16 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.86 / defence 1.03 against AS Eupen attack 0.72 / defence 1.45, drawn from 21/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 44% | Draw 26% | AS Eupen 30%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 38%, AS Eupen 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (21 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
AS Eupen's trading profile (21 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kortrijk 1.52 PPG, AS Eupen 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.