St. Truiden 2-2 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 46%, yet in-form Genk provide a compelling counter-argument — this St. Truiden vs Genk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St. Truiden host Genk at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 16). Kick-off is Sunday 1 December 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Guide
St. Truiden — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
St. Truiden's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Genk stand at 8W 0D 2L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Genk have gone 4W 0D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Genk — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of St. Truiden's games and 60% of Genk's (from St. Truiden's last 10 home games and Genk's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, St. Truiden have won 1, Genk 2, with 4 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2024, ended St. Truiden 2–3 Genk — a Genk win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
St. Truiden in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Genk in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 58% versus Genk 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 47% | Genk 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.81 xG and Genk 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.960 / defence 1.067 | Genk attack 1.277 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.783 / away 0.979. Genk have an above-average attack rating of 1.277, which lifts their away xG to 1.33. Data: built from St. Truiden's last 45 games and Genk's last 45.
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 46% | Draw 29% | Genk 25%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.19 | Draw 3.45 | Genk 3.95. St. Truiden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.81 / 1.33) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St. Truiden are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Genk (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (St. Truiden's last 10 home games and Genk's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: St. Truiden 70% (last 10 home games) | Genk 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 16 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 December 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 46% | Draw 29% | Genk 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG St. Truiden 1.81 / Genk 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.960 / def 1.067 | Genk attack 1.277 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.783 / away 0.979 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Genk xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ St. Truiden vs Genk FAQs
What time does St. Truiden vs Genk kick off?
St. Truiden vs Genk kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Genk?
St. Truiden 2 - 2 Genk.
Where is St. Truiden vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Genk part of?
St. Truiden vs Genk is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 16) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 46% chance of winning, Genk a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both St. Truiden and Genk will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will St. Truiden vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 0.96x the league average against Genk's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Genk's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from St. Truiden's last 45 games and Genk's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
46%
2.19
29%
3.45
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
3.14
1.33
Genk xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
16%
6.11
Win to Nil
12%
8.32
4%
24.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.4 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ St. Truiden vs Genk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.33 for Genk, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St. Truiden come into this having played 55 games, going 17W 19D 19L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Genk sit at 1.65 PPG from 55 outings (26W 13D 16L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: St. Truiden on 1.27 PPG, Genk on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
St. Truiden's home form reads 12W 9D 5L across their last 26 home games, a 1.73 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — St. Truiden are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Genk have taken 1.35 points per game from their last 26 away games (10W 5D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
St. Truiden are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.56 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Genk
Blended
St. Truiden (Home) vs Genk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
St. Truiden
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ St. Truiden vs Genk Form FAQs
What form are St. Truiden and Genk in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 17W 19D 19L in their last 55 games (1.27 PPG), while Genk have gone 26W 13D 16L in their last 55 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Genk away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.73 PPG; Genk away: 1.35 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or Genk been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Genk in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 15 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Genk have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Genk specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
St. Truiden
5
Draws
4
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ St. Truiden vs Genk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Genk?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, St. Truiden have won 1, Genk have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Genk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2026: Genk 1-0 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 58%, Genk 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (St. Truiden) and 50% (Genk).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ St. Truiden vs Genk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in St. Truiden and Genk matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of St. Truiden's games and 58% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are St. Truiden and Genk matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of St. Truiden's recent games and 50% of Genk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Genk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 65% of Genk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St. Truiden and Genk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden and Genk finished level at 2-2 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.81 xG and Genk 1.33 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.96 / defence 1.07 against Genk attack 1.28 / defence 1.06, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 46% | Draw 29% | Genk 25%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 47%, Genk 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Genk's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.27 PPG, Genk 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. St. Truiden (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.