Charleroi 1-1 Standard Liege – Result & Analysis

🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Charleroi at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs Standard Liege fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Standard Liege travel to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to take on Charleroi. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 November 2024, 19:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade du Pays de Charleroi. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Charleroi are significantly better at Stade du Pays de Charleroi than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Standard Liege stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liege, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Standard Liege away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Standard Liege are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Charleroi's 20% rate and Standard Liege's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Charleroi, 1 for Standard Liege and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with Standard Liege winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Charleroi trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Standard Liege trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 45% versus Standard Liege 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 43% | Standard Liege 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.56 xG and Standard Liege 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.737 / defence 0.893 | Standard Liege attack 0.713 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.790 / away 0.974. Charleroi's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 1.56 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Charleroi games / 45 Standard Liege games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Charleroi 57% | Draw 31% | Standard Liege 12%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 1.75 | Draw 3.23 | Standard Liege 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Charleroi (57%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 57% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Standard Liege (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 31% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 20% | Standard Liege 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights