Genk 3-2 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Genk (83%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Genk face Kortrijk.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Genk and Kortrijk meet at Cegeka Arena in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 17). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Genk's record over their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Genk's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Kortrijk have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Kortrijk's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Genk's 2.20 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Kortrijk's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Genk have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins, with Kortrijk managing 2 and 0 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2024, ended Genk 1–2 Kortrijk — a Kortrijk win.
The head-to-head data gives Genk an edge — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Genk — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Kortrijk — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 52% versus Kortrijk 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 56% | Kortrijk 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 2.86 xG and Kortrijk 0.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.182 / defence 0.819 | Kortrijk attack 0.691 / defence 1.342. League average goals — home 1.800 / away 0.996. Kortrijk's defence rating of 1.342 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Genk's projected output up. Kortrijk's attack rating of 0.691 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.56. Data: built from Genk's last 46 games and Kortrijk's last 46.
Result probabilities: Genk 83% | Draw 14% | Kortrijk 3%. Fair-value odds: Genk 1.21 | Draw 7.02 | Kortrijk 30.96. The model has a clear lean to Genk (83%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genk are the pick at 83% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.42 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Genk's last 10 home games and Kortrijk's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Genk 30% (last 10 home games) | Kortrijk 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 17 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 83% | Draw 14% | Kortrijk 3% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Genk 2.86 / Kortrijk 0.56 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.182 / def 0.819 | Kortrijk attack 0.691 / def 1.342 | league avg home 1.800 / away 0.996 • Poisson stance: Genk (83%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.86
Genk xG
Expected Goals
0.56
Kortrijk xG
42%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Genk vs Kortrijk FAQs
What time does Genk vs Kortrijk kick off?
Genk vs Kortrijk kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Kortrijk?
Genk 3 - 2 Kortrijk.
Where is Genk vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Kortrijk part of?
Genk vs Kortrijk is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 17) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 83% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 3% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Genk and Kortrijk will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Genk vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Genk's attack at 1.18x the league average against Kortrijk's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 2.86 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kortrijk's attack (0.69x) against Genk's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.56.
These ratings are built from Genk's last 46 games and Kortrijk's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (12.7%), 4-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
83%
1.21
14%
7.02
3%
30.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.86
Genk xG
Total xG
3.42
0.56
Kortrijk xG
1.21
83%
Home win
7.02
14%
Draw
30.96
3%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
57%
1.76
6%
17.39
Win to Nil
47%
2.13
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 12.7 | 7.2 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Genk vs Kortrijk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Genk and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 2.86 expected goals for Genk and 0.56 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Kortrijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 83%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Genk come into this having played 54 games, going 25W 14D 15L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Kortrijk sit at 1.00 PPG from 54 outings (15W 9D 30L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Genk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Kortrijk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Genk's home form reads 16W 7D 4L across their last 27 home games, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Kortrijk have taken 0.74 points per game from their last 27 away games (5W 5D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Genk are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 0.87 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
Genk (Home) vs Kortrijk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Genk
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Genk vs Kortrijk Form FAQs
What form are Genk and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 25W 14D 15L in their last 54 games (1.65 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 15W 9D 30L in their last 54 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Kortrijk away?
Genk's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 2.04 PPG; Kortrijk away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Genk or Kortrijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genk have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Kortrijk in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Genk and Kortrijk, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Genk have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genk won Genk 4-0 Kortrijk on 17 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genk have gone 5W 0D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Kortrijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Genk
0
Draws
2
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Genk vs Kortrijk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Kortrijk?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Genk have won 7, Kortrijk have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Kortrijk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Genk 3-0 Kortrijk.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Kortrijk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 44%, Kortrijk 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Genk) and 56% (Kortrijk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Kortrijk in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Genk vs Kortrijk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Genk and Kortrijk matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Genk's recent matches and 33% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Genk and Kortrijk matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Genk's matches and 56% of Kortrijk's.
Do Genk and Kortrijk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Genk's recent matches and 82% of Kortrijk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genk edge out Kortrijk 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Kortrijk 3-2 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 2.86 xG and Kortrijk 0.56 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Kortrijk outscored their 0.56 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.18 / defence 0.82 against Kortrijk attack 0.69 / defence 1.34, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 83% | Draw 14% | Kortrijk 3%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 83%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 56%, Kortrijk 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Kortrijk's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Genk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kortrijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.63 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.