Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Antwerp – Result & Analysis

🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Union St. Gilloise at 43%, yet in-form Antwerp provide a compelling counter-argument — this Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Antwerp travel to Stade Joseph Mariën to take on Union St. Gilloise. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 December 2024, 17:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 6W 3D 1L at Stade Joseph Mariën — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Mariën. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Union St. Gilloise are significantly better at Stade Joseph Mariën than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Antwerp stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Antwerp have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Antwerp — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Union St. Gilloise have won 2, Antwerp 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with Antwerp winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Union St. Gilloise trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Antwerp trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 58% versus Antwerp 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 56% | Antwerp 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.34 xG and Antwerp 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 0.969 / defence 0.867 | Antwerp attack 1.066 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.793 / away 0.983. Antwerp's defence strength of 0.771 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 Union St. Gilloise games / 45 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 43% | Draw 36% | Antwerp 22%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.33 | Draw 2.78 | Antwerp 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Antwerp (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 30% | Antwerp 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights