SK Beveren vs Gent – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Gent at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Beveren vs Gent encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 12 as SK Beveren welcome Gent to Freethiel Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 November 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SK Beveren stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Beveren's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 games at Freethiel Stadion this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Freethiel Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — SK Beveren are significantly better at Freethiel Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Gent — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Gent, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gent away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Gent are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
SK Beveren in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Gent in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 50% versus Gent 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 62% | Gent 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 0.98 xG and Gent 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 0.917 / defence 0.995 | Gent attack 1.195 / defence 0.679. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.301. Gent's defence strength of 0.679 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 8 SK Beveren games / 38 Gent games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 24% | Draw 26% | Gent 50%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | Gent 2.00. Gent hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gent as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gent offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 20% | Gent 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Gent | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Freethiel Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 24% | Draw 26% | Gent 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG SK Beveren 0.98 / Gent 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 0.917 / def 0.995 | Gent attack 1.195 / def 0.679 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Gent (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Gent xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Gent kick off?
SK Beveren vs Gent is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Sunday 22 November 2026 at Freethiel Stadion.
Where is SK Beveren vs Gent being played?
The match is being played at Freethiel Stadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Gent part of?
SK Beveren vs Gent is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Gent?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 24% chance of winning, Gent a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Gent?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both SK Beveren and Gent will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Gent have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Gent?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SK Beveren and Gent in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Gent (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SK Beveren's attack rating (0.92) and Gent's defence rating (0.68), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gent's attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
24%
4.15
26%
3.92
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.53
1.55
Gent xG
4.15
24%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
5%
19.52
19%
5.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 12.3 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Gent?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Gent expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.55 for Gent, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Gent?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SK Beveren's recent record stands at 31W 4D 5L from 40 games, a 2.42 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gent, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 12L across 40 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Gent is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SK Beveren by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gent heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SK Beveren have managed 17W 1D 1L from 19 games — 2.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gent's away record stands at 6W 6D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SK Beveren are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Gent are on 1.32 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
Gent
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Gent in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 31W 4D 5L in their last 40 games (2.42 PPG), while Gent have gone 16W 12D 12L in their last 40 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Gent away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.74 PPG; Gent away: 1.26 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Gent been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Gent in 32%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 42%, Gent 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (SK Beveren) and 58% (Gent). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Gent in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Gent away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Gent?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 53% of Gent's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SK Beveren vs Gent usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of SK Beveren's matches and 58% of Gent's.
Do SK Beveren and Gent tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Gent in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.