Charleroi vs SK Beveren – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Charleroi at 80% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs SK Beveren encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

SK Beveren make the trip to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to face Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Current Form

Charleroi's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Charleroi have posted 5W 1D 4L at Stade du Pays de Charleroi — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this season.

SK Beveren (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SK Beveren's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.

The form ledger tips toward Charleroi. A 1.00 PPG lead over SK Beveren (2.50 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

Trading Data

Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).

SK Beveren goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 48% versus SK Beveren 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 40% | SK Beveren 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 2.91 xG and SK Beveren 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.284 / defence 1.089 | SK Beveren attack 0.555 / defence 1.435. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.301. Charleroi carry an above-average attack strength of 1.284 — their λ of 2.91 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. SK Beveren bring a strong defensive rating of 1.435 — this is suppressing Charleroi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Charleroi games / 8 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Charleroi 80% | Draw 12% | SK Beveren 7%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 1.25 | Draw 8.33 | SK Beveren 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Charleroi (80%) — a 73pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 80% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

The Poisson model projects 3.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 60% | SK Beveren 50% BTTS from recent games.

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