Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (77%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Kortrijk face Union St. Gilloise.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 12 as Kortrijk welcome Union St. Gilloise to Guldensporen Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Kortrijk have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Guldensporen Stadion, Kortrijk have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Kortrijk are significantly better at Guldensporen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Union St. Gilloise — 1.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Union St. Gilloise have the better historical record — 8 wins from 8 previous contests against 0 for Kortrijk.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Feb 2025, ended 1–2 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Union St. Gilloise have won 8 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Kortrijk trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 46% versus Union St. Gilloise 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 51% | Union St. Gilloise 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 0.67 xG and Union St. Gilloise 2.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.605 / defence 1.346 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.408 / defence 0.702. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.301. Kortrijk's attack strength of 0.605 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Union St. Gilloise's defence strength of 0.702 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.408 — the away xG of 2.47 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 8 Kortrijk games / 38 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 8% | Draw 15% | Union St. Gilloise 77%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 12.50 | Draw 6.67 | Union St. Gilloise 1.30. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (77%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kortrijk 50% | Union St. Gilloise 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Guldensporen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 8% | Draw 15% | Union St. Gilloise 77% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 45% | xG Kortrijk 0.67 / Union St. Gilloise 2.47 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.605 / def 1.346 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.408 / def 0.702 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
2.47
Union St. Gilloise xG
45%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 22 November 2026 at Guldensporen Stadion.
Where is Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporen Stadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 8% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 77% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (8 meetings): Kortrijk 0W | Draws 0 | Union St. Gilloise 8W.
What form are Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kortrijk's attack rating (0.60) and Union St. Gilloise's defence rating (0.70), the model arrives at 0.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Kortrijk's defence, projects 2.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 0-3 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
8%
12.32
15%
6.62
77%
1.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
10.8%
Away win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
3.14
2.47
Union St. Gilloise xG
12.32
8%
Home win
6.62
15%
Draw
1.30
77%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
8%
11.79
51%
1.96
Win to Nil
1%
145.16
39%
2.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 10.8 | 6.7 | 3.3 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Kortrijk and 2.47 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kortrijk's recent record stands at 21W 4D 14L from 39 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 24W 11D 4L across 39 games — 2.13 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kortrijk heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kortrijk have managed 14W 1D 4L from 19 games — 2.26 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.72 PPG overall — Kortrijk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 8W 7D 4L across 19 trips, a 1.63 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union St. Gilloise's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kortrijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kortrijk are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.77 scored and 0.69 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 21W 4D 14L in their last 39 games (1.72 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 24W 11D 4L in their last 39 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Kortrijk's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 2.26 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Kortrijk or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kortrijk have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Nov 2023, when Union St. Gilloise won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kortrijk's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Kortrijk
0
Draws
8
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise?
From 8 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 0, Union St. Gilloise have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Kortrijk 1-2 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 53%, Union St. Gilloise 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Kortrijk) and 42% (Union St. Gilloise).
On the defensive side: Kortrijk keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Union St. Gilloise in 32%; Union St. Gilloise in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 53% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Kortrijk's recent games and 42% of Union St. Gilloise's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.