Zulte Waregem vs Antwerp – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Zulte Waregem at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zulte Waregem vs Antwerp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Antwerp make the trip to Elindus Arena to face Zulte Waregem in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Zulte Waregem (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Zulte Waregem have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zulte Waregem's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Elindus Arena this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Elindus Arena this season.
Antwerp's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Antwerp have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Antwerp have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Zulte Waregem's 2.40 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Antwerp's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Zulte Waregem lead 2W to 4W over the last 6 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Dec 2025, ended 1–2 with Antwerp winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Zulte Waregem half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Antwerp half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zulte Waregem 60% versus Antwerp 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 55% | Antwerp 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.43 xG and Antwerp 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 1.108 / defence 0.824 | Antwerp attack 1.043 / defence 0.795. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.397. Antwerp's defence strength of 0.795 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 34 Zulte Waregem games / 34 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 42% | Draw 26% | Antwerp 32%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Antwerp 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Antwerp lead the H2H ledger, but Zulte Waregem carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zulte Waregem at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zulte Waregem if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Zulte Waregem 40% | Antwerp 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 42% | Draw 26% | Antwerp 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.43 / Antwerp 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 1.108 / def 0.824 | Antwerp attack 1.043 / def 0.795 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Antwerp xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Antwerp kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Antwerp is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Elindus Arena.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Antwerp part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 42% chance of winning, Antwerp a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Antwerp?
Record (6 meetings): Zulte Waregem 2W | Draws 0 | Antwerp 4W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and Antwerp in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Antwerp (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Zulte Waregem's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Antwerp's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Antwerp's attack (1.04x) against Zulte Waregem's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
42%
2.37
26%
3.84
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.62
1.20
Antwerp xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
13%
7.87
8%
13.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.4 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.20 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Zulte Waregem's recent record stands at 15W 11D 14L from 40 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Antwerp, meanwhile, have gone 14W 7D 19L across 40 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Antwerp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Zulte Waregem against 1.23 for Antwerp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Zulte Waregem have managed 10W 3D 6L from 19 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antwerp's away record stands at 6W 3D 10L across 19 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zulte Waregem come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.18 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Early Season
Antwerp
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 15W 11D 14L in their last 40 games (1.40 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 14W 7D 19L in their last 40 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Antwerp away?
Zulte Waregem's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.74 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 27 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zulte Waregem have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Antwerp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Zulte Waregem
0
Draws
4
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Antwerp?
From 6 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 2, Antwerp have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 27 December 2025, when Antwerp 2-1 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Antwerp?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 47% (Zulte Waregem) and 21% (Antwerp) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Zulte Waregem) and 37% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Zulte Waregem keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Antwerp in 37%; Antwerp in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Zulte Waregem's recent matches and 21% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zulte Waregem vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Zulte Waregem's recent games and 37% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zulte Waregem and Antwerp tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.