RAAL La Louvière 0-0 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antwerp at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RAAL La Louvière vs Antwerp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Antwerp make the trip to Easi Arena to face RAAL La Louvière in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
RAAL La Louvière have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, RAAL La Louvière have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Antwerp's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Antwerp away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Antwerp are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Antwerp edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended RAAL La Louvière 1–3 Antwerp — a Antwerp win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
RAAL La Louvière half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Antwerp half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RAAL La Louvière 57% versus Antwerp 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RAAL La Louvière 46% | Antwerp 45%). Note also that Antwerp surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while RAAL La Louvière recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RAAL La Louvière 0.68 xG and Antwerp 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RAAL La Louvière attack 0.597 / defence 0.976 | Antwerp attack 0.860 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.310. RAAL La Louvière's attack rating of 0.597 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.68. Data: built from RAAL La Louvière's last 27 games and Antwerp's last 57.
Result probabilities: RAAL La Louvière 22% | Draw 33% | Antwerp 45%. Fair-value odds: RAAL La Louvière 4.58 | Draw 2.99 | Antwerp 2.24. Antwerp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS Yes probability 34% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — RAAL La Louvière's lower xG of 0.68 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antwerp as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antwerp if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.78 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 74% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (RAAL La Louvière's last 10 home games and Antwerp's last 10 away games) averaging 1.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: RAAL La Louvière 40% (last 10 home games) | Antwerp 10% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RAAL La Louvière vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 28 | Venue: Easi Arena • Kick-off: Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RAAL La Louvière 22% | Draw 33% | Antwerp 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% (Under 74%) | BTTS Yes 34% (No 66%) | xG RAAL La Louvière 0.68 / Antwerp 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: RAAL La Louvière attack 0.597 / def 0.976 | Antwerp attack 0.860 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.68
RAAL La Louvière xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Antwerp xG
34%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ RAAL La Louvière vs Antwerp FAQs
What time does RAAL La Louvière vs Antwerp kick off?
RAAL La Louvière vs Antwerp kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 6 March 2026 at Easi Arena.
What was the final score in RAAL La Louvière vs Antwerp?
RAAL La Louvière 0 - 0 Antwerp.
Where is RAAL La Louvière vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Easi Arena.
What competition is RAAL La Louvière vs Antwerp part of?
RAAL La Louvière vs Antwerp is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 28) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RAAL La Louvière vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives RAAL La Louvière a 22% chance of winning, Antwerp a 45% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in RAAL La Louvière vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both RAAL La Louvière and Antwerp will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (66%).
Will RAAL La Louvière vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (74%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates RAAL La Louvière's attack at 0.60x the league average against Antwerp's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 0.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Antwerp's attack (0.86x) against RAAL La Louvière's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from RAAL La Louvière's last 27 games and Antwerp's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.9%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
22%
4.58
33%
2.99
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.68
RAAL La Louvière xG
Total xG
1.78
1.10
Antwerp xG
4.58
22%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.98
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
51%
1.97
Win to Nil
7%
13.74
23%
4.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 18.6 | 10.2 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ RAAL La Louvière vs Antwerp Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for RAAL La Louvière vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are RAAL La Louvière and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 0.68 expected goals for RAAL La Louvière and 1.10 for Antwerp, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for RAAL La Louvière vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
RAAL La Louvière come into this having played 56 games, going 23W 19D 14L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-D.
On the other side, Antwerp sit at 1.16 PPG from 56 outings (16W 17D 23L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five.
RAAL La Louvière carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Antwerp — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
RAAL La Louvière's home form reads 12W 9D 6L across their last 27 home games, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Antwerp have taken 1.15 points per game from their last 27 away games (7W 10D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RAAL La Louvière come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RAAL La Louvière are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.12 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RAAL La Louvière
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
RAAL La Louvière (Home) vs Antwerp (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
RAAL La Louvière
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
❓ RAAL La Louvière vs Antwerp Form FAQs
What form are RAAL La Louvière and Antwerp in coming into this match?
RAAL La Louvière have gone 23W 19D 14L in their last 56 games (1.57 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 16W 17D 23L in their last 56 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RAAL La Louvière at home or Antwerp away?
RAAL La Louvière's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RAAL La Louvière at home: 1.67 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.15 PPG.
Have RAAL La Louvière or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
RAAL La Louvière have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Antwerp in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 6 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
RAAL La Louvière
1
Draws
1
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ RAAL La Louvière vs Antwerp H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between RAAL La Louvière and Antwerp?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, RAAL La Louvière have won 0, Antwerp have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did RAAL La Louvière and Antwerp last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 March 2026: RAAL La Louvière 0-0 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between RAAL La Louvière and Antwerp?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RAAL La Louvière are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RAAL La Louvière 44%, Antwerp 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 37% for RAAL La Louvière and 26% for Antwerp.
On the defensive side: RAAL La Louvière keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Antwerp in 33%; RAAL La Louvière have failed to score in 37% of games; Antwerp in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RAAL La Louvière home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ RAAL La Louvière vs Antwerp Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in RAAL La Louvière and Antwerp matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of RAAL La Louvière's recent matches and 41% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are RAAL La Louvière and Antwerp matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of RAAL La Louvière's recent games and 26% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RAAL La Louvière and Antwerp matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of RAAL La Louvière's recent matches and 74% of Antwerp's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at RAAL La Louvière's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Easi Arena, Regular Season - 28, as RAAL La Louvière and Antwerp drew 0-0 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RAAL La Louvière 0.68 xG and Antwerp 1.10 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Antwerp landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RAAL La Louvière attack 0.60 / defence 0.98 against Antwerp attack 0.86 / defence 0.87, drawn from 27/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RAAL La Louvière 22% | Draw 33% | Antwerp 45%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RAAL La Louvière 46%, Antwerp 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RAAL La Louvière's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Antwerp's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, RAAL La Louvière arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. RAAL La Louvière (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.