OH Leuven 1-0 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antwerp at 36% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OH Leuven vs Antwerp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Den Dreef plays host to OH Leuven versus Antwerp in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 30). Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
OH Leuven have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, OH Leuven have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Antwerp (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Antwerp's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for OH Leuven, 1.10 for Antwerp — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to Antwerp, who have 3 wins from 7 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 4 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 10 Aug 2025, ended OH Leuven 1–3 Antwerp — a Antwerp win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Antwerp have won 3 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
OH Leuven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 69 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Antwerp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 69 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OH Leuven 49% versus Antwerp 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 38% | Antwerp 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.01 xG and Antwerp 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.952 / defence 1.028 | Antwerp attack 0.805 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.274. Data: built from OH Leuven's last 59 games and Antwerp's last 59.
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 34% | Draw 30% | Antwerp 36%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 2.95 | Draw 3.31 | Antwerp 2.79. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antwerp as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Antwerp 3 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antwerp if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 66% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (OH Leuven's last 10 home games and Antwerp's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: OH Leuven 50% (last 10 home games) | Antwerp 10% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 30 | Venue: Den Dreef • Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 34% | Draw 30% | Antwerp 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG OH Leuven 1.01 / Antwerp 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.952 / def 1.028 | Antwerp attack 0.805 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Antwerp xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ OH Leuven vs Antwerp FAQs
What time does OH Leuven vs Antwerp kick off?
OH Leuven vs Antwerp kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Den Dreef.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs Antwerp?
OH Leuven 1 - 0 Antwerp.
Where is OH Leuven vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Den Dreef.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Antwerp part of?
OH Leuven vs Antwerp is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 30) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 34% chance of winning, Antwerp a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both OH Leuven and Antwerp will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will OH Leuven vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from OH Leuven's attack rating (0.95) and Antwerp's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Antwerp's attack (0.81x) against OH Leuven's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from OH Leuven's last 59 games and Antwerp's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
34%
2.95
30%
3.31
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
2.07
1.05
Antwerp xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.47
13%
7.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ OH Leuven vs Antwerp Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for OH Leuven and 1.05 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
OH Leuven's recent record stands at 17W 25D 27L from 69 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Antwerp, meanwhile, have gone 22W 21D 26L across 69 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for OH Leuven against 1.26 for Antwerp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, OH Leuven have managed 9W 15D 9L from their last 33 home games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antwerp's away record stands at 8W 13D 12L across their last 33 away games, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
OH Leuven are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.26 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Current Season
Antwerp
Current Season
OH Leuven (Home) vs Antwerp (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
OH Leuven
Current Season
Antwerp
Current Season
❓ OH Leuven vs Antwerp Form FAQs
What form are OH Leuven and Antwerp in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 17W 25D 27L in their last 69 games (1.10 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 22W 21D 26L in their last 69 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or Antwerp away?
OH Leuven's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.27 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between OH Leuven and Antwerp, the earliest from August 2022. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 15 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OH Leuven won OH Leuven 3-0 Antwerp on 15 May 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OH Leuven have gone 2W 3D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Antwerp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
OH Leuven
4
Draws
4
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ OH Leuven vs Antwerp H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Antwerp?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, OH Leuven have won 2, Antwerp have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Antwerp last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 May 2026: OH Leuven 3-0 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between OH Leuven and Antwerp?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OH Leuven 52%, Antwerp 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for OH Leuven and 24% for Antwerp.
On the defensive side: OH Leuven keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Antwerp in 30%; OH Leuven have failed to score in 30% of games; Antwerp in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ OH Leuven vs Antwerp Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in OH Leuven and Antwerp matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of OH Leuven's recent matches and 42% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are OH Leuven and Antwerp matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of OH Leuven's recent games and 24% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OH Leuven and Antwerp matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of OH Leuven's recent matches and 73% of Antwerp's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as OH Leuven defy the odds to beat Antwerp 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OH Leuven beat Antwerp 1-0 at Den Dreef, Regular Season - 30, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.01 xG and Antwerp 1.05 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Antwerp landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.95 / defence 1.03 against Antwerp attack 0.81 / defence 0.83, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 34% | Draw 30% | Antwerp 36%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual OH Leuven win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 38%, Antwerp 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (69 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Antwerp's trading profile (69 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.10 PPG, Antwerp 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OH Leuven win broke the near-deadlock. OH Leuven (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.