KVC Westerlo 2-1 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 47% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Charleroi travel to Het Kuipje to take on KVC Westerlo in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 February 2026 at 18:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, KVC Westerlo stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, KVC Westerlo have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Charleroi have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Charleroi have posted 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: KVC Westerlo 1.50 PPG, Charleroi 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Charleroi have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against 0 for KVC Westerlo.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended KVC Westerlo 0–2 Charleroi — a Charleroi win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Charleroi have won 5 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
KVC Westerlo in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Charleroi in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KVC Westerlo 57% versus Charleroi 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KVC Westerlo 54% | Charleroi 45%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: KVC Westerlo surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Charleroi have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KVC Westerlo 0.98 xG and Charleroi 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KVC Westerlo attack 0.874 / defence 1.017 | Charleroi attack 1.022 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.379. Data: built from KVC Westerlo's last 55 games and Charleroi's last 55.
Result probabilities: KVC Westerlo 25% | Draw 27% | Charleroi 47%. Fair-value odds: KVC Westerlo 3.93 | Draw 3.68 | Charleroi 2.11. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Charleroi 5 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: KVC Westerlo 20% (last 10 home games) | Charleroi 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 26 | Venue: Het Kuipje • Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 18:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KVC Westerlo 25% | Draw 27% | Charleroi 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG KVC Westerlo 0.98 / Charleroi 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: KVC Westerlo attack 0.874 / def 1.017 | Charleroi attack 1.022 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
KVC Westerlo xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Charleroi xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi FAQs
What time does KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi kick off?
KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi kicked off at 18:15 UK time on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Het Kuipje.
What was the final score in KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi?
KVC Westerlo 2 - 1 Charleroi.
Where is KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Het Kuipje.
What competition is KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi part of?
KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 26) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives KVC Westerlo a 25% chance of winning, Charleroi a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both KVC Westerlo and Charleroi will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
KVC Westerlo's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus KVC Westerlo's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from KVC Westerlo's last 55 games and Charleroi's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
25%
3.93
27%
3.68
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
KVC Westerlo xG
Total xG
2.41
1.43
Charleroi xG
3.93
25%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
6%
16.49
18%
5.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 12.9 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are KVC Westerlo and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for KVC Westerlo and 1.43 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, KVC Westerlo have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 21W 19D 25L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Charleroi's form line: 26W 16D 23L from 65 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: KVC Westerlo on 1.26 PPG, Charleroi on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, KVC Westerlo have posted 1.44 PPG from their last 32 home games (12W 10D 10L).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 10W 7D 15L from their last 32 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
KVC Westerlo are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.40 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KVC Westerlo
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
KVC Westerlo (Home) vs Charleroi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
KVC Westerlo
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi Form FAQs
What form are KVC Westerlo and Charleroi in coming into this match?
KVC Westerlo have gone 21W 19D 25L in their last 65 games (1.26 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 26W 16D 23L in their last 65 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KVC Westerlo at home or Charleroi away?
KVC Westerlo's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KVC Westerlo at home: 1.44 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from March 2024. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Nov 2026, when Charleroi won KVC Westerlo 1-5 Charleroi.
KVC Westerlo's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
KVC Westerlo
1
Draws
6
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between KVC Westerlo and Charleroi?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, KVC Westerlo have won 3, Charleroi have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did KVC Westerlo and Charleroi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: KVC Westerlo 1-5 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between KVC Westerlo and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
KVC Westerlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KVC Westerlo 56%, Charleroi 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (KVC Westerlo) and 47% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Charleroi in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KVC Westerlo home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in KVC Westerlo and Charleroi matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of KVC Westerlo's recent matches and 53% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are KVC Westerlo and Charleroi matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of KVC Westerlo's recent games and 47% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KVC Westerlo and Charleroi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of KVC Westerlo's recent matches and 69% of Charleroi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as KVC Westerlo defy the odds to beat Charleroi 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KVC Westerlo beat Charleroi 2-1 at Het Kuipje, Regular Season - 26, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KVC Westerlo 0.98 xG and Charleroi 1.43 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. KVC Westerlo beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KVC Westerlo attack 0.87 / defence 1.02 against Charleroi attack 1.02 / defence 0.88, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KVC Westerlo 25% | Draw 27% | Charleroi 47%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a KVC Westerlo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KVC Westerlo 54%, Charleroi 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KVC Westerlo's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Charleroi's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KVC Westerlo 1.26 PPG, Charleroi 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KVC Westerlo win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.