Union St. Gilloise vs Genk – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 59% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs Genk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 11 as Union St. Gilloise welcome Genk to Stade Joseph Marien. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 November 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union St. Gilloise stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Union St. Gilloise have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Union St. Gilloise at Stade Joseph Marien this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Marien. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Union St. Gilloise are significantly better at Stade Joseph Marien than their overall form suggests.
Genk — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Genk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Genk have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Union St. Gilloise 1.80 PPG, Genk 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Union St. Gilloise: 7 wins from 10 previous clashes against 3 for Genk, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2026, ended 2–1 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
The historical record gives Union St. Gilloise a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Genk in-play and half-time data (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 44% versus Genk 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 42% | Genk 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 2.12 xG and Genk 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.014 / defence 0.660 | Genk attack 1.253 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.397. Genk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing Union St. Gilloise's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Genk have an above-average attack strength of 1.253 — the away xG of 1.16 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Union St. Gilloise's defence rating of 0.660 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 33 Union St. Gilloise games / 34 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 59% | Draw 21% | Genk 20%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Genk 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Union St. Gilloise 40% | Genk 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade Joseph Marien • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 59% | Draw 21% | Genk 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 60% | xG Union St. Gilloise 2.12 / Genk 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.014 / def 0.660 | Genk attack 1.253 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Genk xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Genk kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Genk is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 8 November 2026 at Stade Joseph Marien.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Marien.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Genk part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Genk is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 59% chance of winning, Genk a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Genk?
Record (10 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 7W | Draws 0 | Genk 3W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Genk in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Genk (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union St. Gilloise's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Genk's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.12. The same calculation in reverse, Genk's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
59%
1.68
21%
4.88
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
3.28
1.16
Genk xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.88
21%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
12%
8.33
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
2%
41.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.16 for Genk, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union St. Gilloise come into this having played 43 games, going 27W 12D 4L for 2.16 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Genk sit at 1.53 PPG from 43 outings (17W 15D 11L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Genk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Genk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Union St. Gilloise's home form reads 19W 3D 0L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.73 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.16 PPG overall — Union St. Gilloise are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Genk have taken 1.45 points per game from 22 outings (8W 8D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 0.65 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.56 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk in 63%.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Early Season
Genk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Genk in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 27W 12D 4L in their last 43 games (2.16 PPG), while Genk have gone 17W 15D 11L in their last 43 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Genk away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.73 PPG; Genk away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Genk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Genk in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union St. Gilloise and Genk runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2024, when Union St. Gilloise won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Genk specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Union St. Gilloise
0
Draws
3
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Genk?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, Genk have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Genk?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 32%, Genk 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Union St. Gilloise) and 68% (Genk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 68% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Genk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 73% of Genk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 68% of Genk's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Genk tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Genk in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.