Union St. Gilloise vs Genk – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (67%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union St. Gilloise face Genk.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 11 as Union St. Gilloise welcome Genk to Stade Joseph Marien. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 November 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union St. Gilloise stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise at Stade Joseph Marien this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Marien. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Genk — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Genk have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Union St. Gilloise are in the better shape of the two on current Jupiler Pro League data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Union St. Gilloise: 7 wins from 10 previous clashes against 3 for Genk, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2026, ended 2–1 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
The historical record gives Union St. Gilloise a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Genk in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 44% versus Genk 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 44% | Genk 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 2.23 xG and Genk 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.192 / defence 0.706 | Genk attack 1.011 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.301. Union St. Gilloise's defence rating of 0.706 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Union St. Gilloise games / 38 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 67% | Draw 19% | Genk 14%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | Genk 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Union St. Gilloise 30% | Genk 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade Joseph Marien • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 67% | Draw 19% | Genk 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 54% | xG Union St. Gilloise 2.23 / Genk 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.192 / def 0.706 | Genk attack 1.011 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Genk xG
54%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Genk kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Genk is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 8 November 2026 at Stade Joseph Marien.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Marien.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Genk part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Genk is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 67% chance of winning, Genk a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Genk?
Record (10 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 7W | Draws 0 | Genk 3W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Genk in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Genk (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union St. Gilloise's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Genk's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.23. The same calculation in reverse, Genk's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
67%
1.50
19%
5.32
14%
6.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
3.16
0.93
Genk xG
1.50
67%
Home win
5.32
19%
Draw
6.97
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
11%
9.30
Win to Nil
26%
3.78
2%
64.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.93 for Genk, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union St. Gilloise come into this having played 48 games, going 31W 13D 4L for 2.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Genk sit at 1.50 PPG from 48 outings (18W 18D 12L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Genk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Union St. Gilloise's home form reads 20W 4D 0L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.21 PPG overall — Union St. Gilloise are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Genk have taken 1.38 points per game from 24 outings (8W 9D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.65 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.50 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk in 60%.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Genk in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 31W 13D 4L in their last 48 games (2.21 PPG), while Genk have gone 18W 18D 12L in their last 48 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Genk away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.67 PPG; Genk away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Genk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Genk in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union St. Gilloise and Genk runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2024, when Union St. Gilloise won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Genk specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Union St. Gilloise
0
Draws
3
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Genk?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, Genk have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Genk?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 33%, Genk 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Union St. Gilloise) and 67% (Genk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Genk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 67% of Genk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 67% of Genk's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Genk tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Genk in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.