Kortrijk 2-1 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antwerp at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kortrijk vs Antwerp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Antwerp make the trip to Guldensporenstadion to face Kortrijk in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 October 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Kortrijk (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Guldensporenstadion, Kortrijk have gone 1W 1D 8L this season (10 games, 0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Antwerp have collected 3.00 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 10W 0D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antwerp away from home this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 3.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Antwerp are 2.30 PPG clear of Kortrijk in recent Jupiler Pro League fixtures (3.00 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kortrijk lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2022, ended 0–2 with Antwerp winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Kortrijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Antwerp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 51% versus Antwerp 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 42% | Antwerp 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 0.67 xG and Antwerp 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.698 / defence 1.167 | Antwerp attack 1.064 / defence 0.657. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.432. Kortrijk's attack strength of 0.698 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Antwerp's defence strength of 0.657 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 Kortrijk games / 43 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 14% | Draw 22% | Antwerp 64%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 7.14 | Draw 4.55 | Antwerp 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Antwerp (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antwerp are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Kortrijk 40% | Antwerp 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 14% | Draw 22% | Antwerp 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 41% | xG Kortrijk 0.67 / Antwerp 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.698 / def 1.167 | Antwerp attack 1.064 / def 0.657 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Antwerp xG
41%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs Antwerp kick off?
Kortrijk vs Antwerp kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Antwerp?
Kortrijk 2 - 1 Antwerp.
Where is Kortrijk vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Antwerp part of?
Kortrijk vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 14% chance of winning, Antwerp a 64% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Kortrijk and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Antwerp?
Record (2 meetings): Kortrijk 1W | Draws 0 | Antwerp 1W.
What form are Kortrijk and Antwerp in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Antwerp (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kortrijk's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Antwerp's defensive record (0.66x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.67. Flip it around — Antwerp's attack (1.06x) against Kortrijk's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.78.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-2 (13.6%), 1-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
14%
7.37
22%
4.45
64%
1.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.6%
Away win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.45
1.78
Antwerp xG
7.37
14%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
1.56
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
17%
5.92
51%
1.96
Win to Nil
2%
43.64
33%
3.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 15.3 | 13.6 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.3 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Kortrijk and 1.78 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Antwerp?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kortrijk come into this having played 43 games, going 11W 11D 21L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Antwerp sit at 2.00 PPG from 43 outings (27W 5D 11L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antwerp carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.98 PPG clear of Kortrijk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Kortrijk's home form reads 4W 5D 11L across 20 games on their own ground, a 0.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Antwerp have taken 2.00 points per game from 20 outings (13W 1D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antwerp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kortrijk are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.58 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Antwerp in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 11W 11D 21L in their last 43 games (1.02 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 27W 5D 11L in their last 43 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or Antwerp away?
Antwerp's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 0.85 PPG; Antwerp away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Kortrijk or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kortrijk have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Antwerp in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Antwerp have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won 6-0 on 11 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kortrijk have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Antwerp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Kortrijk
0
Draws
6
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Antwerp?
From 8 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 2, Antwerp have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Antwerp 2-1 Kortrijk.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and Antwerp?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 50%, Antwerp 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Kortrijk) and 40% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Antwerp in 50%; Kortrijk have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 45% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kortrijk vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Kortrijk's recent games and 40% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kortrijk and Antwerp tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kortrijk defy the odds to beat Antwerp 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kortrijk beat Antwerp 2-1 at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 0.67 xG and Antwerp 1.78 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Kortrijk beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.70 / defence 1.17 against Antwerp attack 1.06 / defence 0.66, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 14% | Draw 22% | Antwerp 64%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Kortrijk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 42%, Antwerp 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Antwerp's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Antwerp arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Kortrijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kortrijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Antwerp (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.