Antwerp 2-0 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antwerp at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antwerp vs St. Truiden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees St. Truiden travel to Bosuilstadion to take on Antwerp. The game is scheduled for Friday 7 October 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Antwerp — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.70 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bosuilstadion, Antwerp have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Bosuilstadion this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St. Truiden stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's away record: 6W 4D 0L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 away clean sheets from 10 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Antwerp are in the better shape of the two on current Jupiler Pro League data — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Antwerp, 1 for St. Truiden and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Antwerp trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
St. Truiden trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 52% versus St. Truiden 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 52% | St. Truiden 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.14 xG and St. Truiden 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.364 / defence 0.844 | St. Truiden attack 0.858 / defence 0.569. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.420. Antwerp carry an above-average attack strength of 1.364 — their λ of 1.14 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. St. Truiden's defence strength of 0.569 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Antwerp games / 44 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antwerp 38% | Draw 29% | St. Truiden 33%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | St. Truiden 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antwerp are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antwerp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Antwerp 50% | St. Truiden 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Friday 7 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 38% | Draw 29% | St. Truiden 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Antwerp 1.14 / St. Truiden 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.364 / def 0.844 | St. Truiden attack 0.858 / def 0.569 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.420 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
1.03
St. Truiden xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs St. Truiden kick off?
Antwerp vs St. Truiden kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 7 October 2022 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs St. Truiden?
Antwerp 2 - 0 St. Truiden.
Where is Antwerp vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs St. Truiden part of?
Antwerp vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 38% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Antwerp and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and St. Truiden?
Record (2 meetings): Antwerp 0W | Draws 1 | St. Truiden 1W.
What form are Antwerp and St. Truiden in?
Antwerp (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. St. Truiden (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Antwerp's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (0.57x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Antwerp's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
38%
2.63
29%
3.40
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Antwerp xG
Total xG
2.16
1.03
St. Truiden xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
10%
9.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.8 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Antwerp and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Antwerp and 1.03 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Antwerp's recent record stands at 27W 5D 12L from 44 games, a 1.95 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 16L across 44 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Antwerp by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over St. Truiden heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Antwerp have managed 13W 4D 5L from 22 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 10W 6D 6L across 22 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Antwerp are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.18 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 27W 5D 12L in their last 44 games (1.95 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 18W 10D 16L in their last 44 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or St. Truiden away?
Antwerp's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 1.95 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Antwerp or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Aug 2024, when Antwerp won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antwerp's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Antwerp
3
Draws
2
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 5, St. Truiden have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Antwerp 1-0 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and St. Truiden?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antwerp see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 54%, St. Truiden 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Antwerp) and 27% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: Antwerp keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; St. Truiden in 54%; St. Truiden in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Antwerp's recent matches and 32% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antwerp vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Antwerp's recent games and 27% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antwerp and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antwerp cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over St. Truiden.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat St. Truiden 2-0 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.14 xG and St. Truiden 1.03 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Antwerp beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. St. Truiden landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.36 / defence 0.84 against St. Truiden attack 0.86 / defence 0.57, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 38% | Draw 29% | St. Truiden 33%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 52%, St. Truiden 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
St. Truiden's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Antwerp arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.45. Form held, and they took the win. Antwerp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.