Genk 2-1 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Genk at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genk vs Kortrijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Genk and Kortrijk meet at Cegeka Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Genk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genk's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Cegeka Arena this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Kortrijk have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kortrijk's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Genk's 2.50 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Kortrijk's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Genk lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2022, ended 2–0 with Genk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Genk — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Kortrijk — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 57% versus Kortrijk 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 61% | Kortrijk 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.92 xG and Kortrijk 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.183 / defence 0.776 | Kortrijk attack 0.888 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.408. Genk's defence rating of 0.776 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Genk games / 44 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 60% | Draw 22% | Kortrijk 19%. Fair-value odds: Genk 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Kortrijk 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Genk (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genk are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Genk 50% | Kortrijk 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 60% | Draw 22% | Kortrijk 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 53% | xG Genk 1.92 / Kortrijk 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.183 / def 0.776 | Kortrijk attack 0.888 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Genk (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Genk xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Kortrijk xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs Kortrijk kick off?
Genk vs Kortrijk kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Kortrijk?
Genk 2 - 1 Kortrijk.
Where is Genk vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Kortrijk part of?
Genk vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 60% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Genk and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Kortrijk?
Record (2 meetings): Genk 2W | Draws 0 | Kortrijk 0W.
What form are Genk and Kortrijk in?
Genk (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Kortrijk (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Genk's attack at 1.18x the league average against Kortrijk's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kortrijk's attack (0.89x) against Genk's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
60%
1.68
22%
4.57
19%
5.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Genk xG
Total xG
2.89
0.97
Kortrijk xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
5.37
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
15%
6.81
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
3%
36.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Genk and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Genk and 0.97 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Kortrijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Genk come into this having played 44 games, going 23W 7D 14L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kortrijk sit at 1.07 PPG from 44 outings (12W 11D 21L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Kortrijk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Genk's home form reads 14W 3D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.14 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — Genk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Kortrijk have taken 1.00 points per game from 21 outings (5W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Genk are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.16 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 23W 7D 14L in their last 44 games (1.73 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 12W 11D 21L in their last 44 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Kortrijk away?
Genk's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 2.14 PPG; Kortrijk away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genk won 4-0 on 17 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genk have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kortrijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Genk
0
Draws
2
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Kortrijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Genk have won 6, Kortrijk have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2024, when Genk 3-2 Kortrijk.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Kortrijk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 52%, Kortrijk 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Genk) and 43% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Genk's recent matches and 57% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genk vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Genk's recent games and 43% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genk and Kortrijk tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genk edge out Kortrijk 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Kortrijk 2-1 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.92 xG and Kortrijk 0.97 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.18 / defence 0.78 against Kortrijk attack 0.89 / defence 1.10, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 60% | Draw 22% | Kortrijk 19%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 61%, Kortrijk 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Kortrijk's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.