Anderlecht 0-1 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Anderlecht at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Anderlecht vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Anderlecht and Charleroi meet at Lotto Park in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 October 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Anderlecht (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Anderlecht's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Lotto Park this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Anderlecht are significantly better at Lotto Park than their overall form suggests.
Charleroi have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Charleroi have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Anderlecht against 1.50 for Charleroi. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Anderlecht, 0 for Charleroi and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2022, ended 4–0 with Anderlecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Anderlecht — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Charleroi — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Anderlecht 55% versus Charleroi 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 57% | Charleroi 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 2.08 xG and Charleroi 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 1.314 / defence 0.870 | Charleroi attack 1.015 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.390. Anderlecht carry an above-average attack strength of 1.314 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 Anderlecht games / 43 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 57% | Draw 21% | Charleroi 22%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | Charleroi 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Anderlecht (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Anderlecht are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Anderlecht 50% | Charleroi 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 57% | Draw 21% | Charleroi 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 62% | xG Anderlecht 2.08 / Charleroi 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 1.314 / def 0.870 | Charleroi attack 1.015 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Charleroi xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Anderlecht vs Charleroi kick off?
Anderlecht vs Charleroi kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs Charleroi?
Anderlecht 0 - 1 Charleroi.
Where is Anderlecht vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs Charleroi part of?
Anderlecht vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 57% chance of winning, Charleroi a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Anderlecht and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Anderlecht vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Charleroi?
Record (2 meetings): Anderlecht 2W | Draws 0 | Charleroi 0W.
What form are Anderlecht and Charleroi in?
Anderlecht (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Charleroi (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Anderlecht's attack at 1.31x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 2.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (1.01x) against Anderlecht's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
57%
1.75
21%
4.77
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
3.31
1.23
Charleroi xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
12%
8.00
Win to Nil
17%
5.99
3%
36.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Anderlecht and 1.23 for Charleroi, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs Charleroi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Anderlecht's recent record stands at 24W 13D 12L from 49 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 21W 10D 18L across 49 games — 1.49 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Anderlecht against 1.49 for Charleroi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Anderlecht have managed 14W 7D 3L from 24 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 11W 4D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Anderlecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Anderlecht are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.63 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Anderlecht and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 24W 13D 12L in their last 49 games (1.73 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 21W 10D 18L in their last 49 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or Charleroi away?
Anderlecht's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 2.04 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 26 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Charleroi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Anderlecht won 4-0 on 3 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Anderlecht have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Anderlecht
1
Draws
3
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Anderlecht have won 6, Charleroi have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 26 December 2025, when Anderlecht 1-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and Charleroi?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Anderlecht 58%, Charleroi 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Anderlecht and 75% for Charleroi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Anderlecht play Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Anderlecht's games and 54% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Anderlecht vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Anderlecht's matches and 75% of Charleroi's.
Do Anderlecht and Charleroi tend to score early?
Anderlecht have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charleroi defy the odds to beat Anderlecht 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Anderlecht 0-1 at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 2.08 xG and Charleroi 1.23 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Anderlecht fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.31 / defence 0.87 against Charleroi attack 1.01 / defence 1.07, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 57% | Draw 21% | Charleroi 22%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Charleroi win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 57%, Charleroi 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Charleroi's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Anderlecht 1.73 PPG, Charleroi 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.