Gent 2-0 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Gent (57%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Gent face Zulte Waregem.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gent host Zulte Waregem at Planet Group Arena in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 29). Kick-off is Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Gent — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gent's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Zulte Waregem have recorded 2W 0D 8L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Zulte Waregem's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Gent are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Gent's games and 70% of Zulte Waregem's (from Gent's last 10 home games and Zulte Waregem's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Gent: 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 1 for Zulte Waregem, with 0 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2025, ended Gent 1–4 Zulte Waregem — a Zulte Waregem win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Gent and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 4.2 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Gent trading profile (last 57 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Zulte Waregem trading profile (last 57 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gent 49% versus Zulte Waregem 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gent 56% | Zulte Waregem 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gent 2.15 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gent attack 1.199 / defence 1.031 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.971 / defence 1.375. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.293. Zulte Waregem's defence rating of 1.375 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Gent's projected output up. Data: built from Gent's last 58 games and Zulte Waregem's last 28.
Result probabilities: Gent 57% | Draw 21% | Zulte Waregem 22%. Fair-value odds: Gent 1.76 | Draw 4.79 | Zulte Waregem 4.48. The model has a clear lean to Gent (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (2.15 / 1.29) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gent at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.45 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Gent's last 10 home games and Zulte Waregem's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gent 60% (last 10 home games) | Zulte Waregem 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gent vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 29 | Venue: Planet Group Arena • Kick-off: Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gent 57% | Draw 21% | Zulte Waregem 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Gent 2.15 / Zulte Waregem 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Gent attack 1.199 / def 1.031 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.971 / def 1.375 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Gent (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Gent xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Zulte Waregem xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gent vs Zulte Waregem FAQs
What time does Gent vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
Gent vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 13 March 2026 at Planet Group Arena.
What was the final score in Gent vs Zulte Waregem?
Gent 2 - 0 Zulte Waregem.
Where is Gent vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Planet Group Arena.
What competition is Gent vs Zulte Waregem part of?
Gent vs Zulte Waregem is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 29) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Gent vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives Gent a 57% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gent vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Gent and Zulte Waregem will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Gent vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gent's attack rating (1.20) and Zulte Waregem's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 2.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zulte Waregem's attack versus Gent's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gent's last 58 games and Zulte Waregem's last 28 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
57%
1.76
21%
4.79
22%
4.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Gent xG
Total xG
3.45
1.29
Zulte Waregem xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
4.48
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
12%
8.60
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
3%
38.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gent vs Zulte Waregem Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gent vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Gent and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Gent and 1.29 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Gent vs Zulte Waregem?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gent's recent record stands at 18W 15D 24L from 57 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Zulte Waregem, meanwhile, have gone 25W 14D 18L across 57 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gent on 1.21 PPG, Zulte Waregem on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gent have managed 11W 5D 13L from their last 29 home games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zulte Waregem's away record stands at 9W 10D 10L across their last 29 away games, a 1.28 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Gent are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.65 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem in 65%.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gent
Current Season
Zulte Waregem
Current Season
Gent (Home) vs Zulte Waregem (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gent
Current Season
Zulte Waregem
Current Season
❓ Gent vs Zulte Waregem Form FAQs
What form are Gent and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
Gent have gone 18W 15D 24L in their last 57 games (1.21 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 25W 14D 18L in their last 57 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gent at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Gent's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gent at home: 1.31 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gent have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 Mar 2023, when Gent won Zulte Waregem 2-6 Gent.
Gent's record when hosting Zulte Waregem specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
6
Gent
0
Draws
1
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Gent vs Zulte Waregem H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Zulte Waregem?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Gent have won 6, Zulte Waregem have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gent and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Zulte Waregem 0-2 Gent.
Who has won more matches between Gent and Zulte Waregem?
Gent have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gent 52%, Zulte Waregem 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Gent) and 62% (Zulte Waregem). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gent home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gent vs Zulte Waregem Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gent and Zulte Waregem matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Gent's games and 69% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Gent and Zulte Waregem matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Gent's matches and 62% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do Gent and Zulte Waregem matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Gent's recent matches and 76% of Zulte Waregem's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gent cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Zulte Waregem.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gent beat Zulte Waregem 2-0 at Planet Group Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 2.15 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.29 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Zulte Waregem landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.20 / defence 1.03 against Zulte Waregem attack 0.97 / defence 1.38, drawn from 58/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gent 57% | Draw 21% | Zulte Waregem 22%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 56%, Zulte Waregem 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gent's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gent 1.21 PPG, Zulte Waregem 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gent win broke the near-deadlock. Gent (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.