Genk 2-0 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genk at 51% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genk vs Anderlecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cegeka Arena plays host to Genk versus Anderlecht in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 24). Kick-off: Sunday 8 February 2026 at 12:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Genk have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Genk have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Anderlecht (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Anderlecht have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Genk have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins, with Anderlecht managing 2 and 1 draw.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2025, ended Genk 1–1 Anderlecht — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Genk an edge — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Data
Genk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Anderlecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 64% versus Anderlecht 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 59% | Anderlecht 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.84 xG and Anderlecht 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.064 / defence 1.137 | Anderlecht attack 0.867 / defence 1.376. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.289. Anderlecht's defence rating of 1.376 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Genk's projected output up. Data: built from Genk's last 53 games and Anderlecht's last 53.
Result probabilities: Genk 51% | Draw 23% | Anderlecht 26%. Fair-value odds: Genk 1.98 | Draw 4.32 | Anderlecht 3.80. Genk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.84 / 1.27) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genk at 51% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Genk 5 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genk if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Genk's last 10 home games and Anderlecht's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Genk 80% (last 10 home games) | Anderlecht 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 24 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 February 2026 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 51% | Draw 23% | Anderlecht 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Genk 1.84 / Anderlecht 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.064 / def 1.137 | Anderlecht attack 0.867 / def 1.376 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Genk (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Genk xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Anderlecht xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Genk vs Anderlecht FAQs
What time does Genk vs Anderlecht kick off?
Genk vs Anderlecht kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Anderlecht?
Genk 2 - 0 Anderlecht.
Where is Genk vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Anderlecht part of?
Genk vs Anderlecht is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 24) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 51% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Genk and Anderlecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Genk vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Genk's attack at 1.06x the league average against Anderlecht's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Anderlecht's attack (0.87x) against Genk's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from Genk's last 53 games and Anderlecht's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
51%
1.98
23%
4.32
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Genk xG
Total xG
3.11
1.27
Anderlecht xG
1.98
51%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
16%
6.28
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
4%
23.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.4 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Genk vs Anderlecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Genk and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Genk and 1.27 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Genk's recent record stands at 32W 14D 17L from 63 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-W in the last five.
Anderlecht, meanwhile, have gone 28W 13D 22L across 63 games — 1.54 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Genk against 1.54 for Anderlecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Genk have managed 18W 6D 7L from their last 31 home games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Anderlecht's away record stands at 12W 6D 13L across their last 31 away games, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Genk are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.46 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Anderlecht in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Blended
Anderlecht
Blended
Genk (Home) vs Anderlecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Genk
Blended
Anderlecht
Blended
❓ Genk vs Anderlecht Form FAQs
What form are Genk and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 32W 14D 17L in their last 63 games (1.75 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 28W 13D 22L in their last 63 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Anderlecht away?
Genk's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 1.94 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Genk or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genk have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Genk and Anderlecht, the earliest from December 2023. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genk have gone 4W 0D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Anderlecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Genk
2
Draws
2
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Genk vs Anderlecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Anderlecht?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Genk have won 6, Anderlecht have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Anderlecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Anderlecht 0-0 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Anderlecht?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 55%, Anderlecht 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Genk) and 36% (Anderlecht).
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Anderlecht in 36%; Anderlecht in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Genk vs Anderlecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Genk and Anderlecht matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Genk's recent matches and 36% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Genk and Anderlecht matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Genk's recent games and 36% of Anderlecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genk and Anderlecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Genk's recent matches and 64% of Anderlecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genk cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Anderlecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Anderlecht 2-0 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.84 xG and Anderlecht 1.27 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Anderlecht landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.06 / defence 1.14 against Anderlecht attack 0.87 / defence 1.38, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 51% | Draw 23% | Anderlecht 26%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 59%, Anderlecht 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Anderlecht's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genk 1.75 PPG, Anderlecht 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genk win broke the near-deadlock. Genk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.