Dender 1-3 Gent – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gent at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dender vs Gent encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dender and Gent meet at Dender Football Complex in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Current Form
Dender's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Dender's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gent (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Gent away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Gent are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Dender's last 10 home games and Gent's last 10 away games) — Dender have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Gent in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Sep 2025, ended Dender 0–3 Gent — a Gent win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Dender — key trading statistics (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Gent — key trading statistics (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dender 56% versus Gent 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dender 54% | Gent 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dender 1.42 xG and Gent 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dender attack 0.913 / defence 1.347 | Gent attack 1.073 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.274. Gent's defence rating of 1.212 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dender's projected output up. Dender's defence rating of 1.347 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Gent's projected output up. Data: built from Dender's last 59 games and Gent's last 59.
Result probabilities: Dender 30% | Draw 23% | Gent 48%. Fair-value odds: Dender 3.36 | Draw 4.41 | Gent 2.10. Gent hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.42 / 1.84) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gent are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gent if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Dender's last 10 home games and Gent's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dender 70% (last 10 home games) | Gent 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dender vs Gent | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 30 | Venue: Dender Football Complex • Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dender 30% | Draw 23% | Gent 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Dender 1.42 / Gent 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Dender attack 0.913 / def 1.347 | Gent attack 1.073 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Gent (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Dender xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Gent xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dender vs Gent FAQs
What time does Dender vs Gent kick off?
Dender vs Gent kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Dender Football Complex.
What was the final score in Dender vs Gent?
Dender 1 - 3 Gent.
Where is Dender vs Gent being played?
The match is being played at Dender Football Complex.
What competition is Dender vs Gent part of?
Dender vs Gent is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 30) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Dender vs Gent?
Our statistical model gives Dender a 30% chance of winning, Gent a 48% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dender vs Gent?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Dender and Gent will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dender vs Gent have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dender's attack at 0.91x the league average against Gent's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gent's attack (1.07x) against Dender's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.84.
These ratings are built from Dender's last 59 games and Gent's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
30%
3.36
23%
4.41
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Dender xG
Total xG
3.26
1.84
Gent xG
3.36
30%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
16%
6.30
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
5%
21.16
12%
8.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dender vs Gent Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dender vs Gent?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Dender and Gent expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Dender and 1.84 for Gent, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Dender vs Gent?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dender come into this having played 69 games, going 14W 22D 33L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L.
On the other side, Gent sit at 1.30 PPG from 69 outings (24W 18D 27L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Dender against 1.30 for Gent. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Dender's home form reads 8W 12D 14L across their last 34 home games, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Gent have taken 1.15 points per game from their last 34 away games (9W 12D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dender are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Gent are on 1.32 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dender
Current Season
Gent
Current Season
Dender (Home) vs Gent (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dender
Current Season
Gent
Current Season
❓ Dender vs Gent Form FAQs
What form are Dender and Gent in coming into this match?
Dender have gone 14W 22D 33L in their last 69 games (0.93 PPG), while Gent have gone 24W 18D 27L in their last 69 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dender at home or Gent away?
Gent's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dender at home: 1.06 PPG; Gent away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Dender or Gent been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dender have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Gent in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Gent have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gent won Gent 3-0 Dender on 19 Sep 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dender have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Gent — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dender
1
Draws
2
Gent
Recent Meetings
❓ Dender vs Gent H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and Gent?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Dender have won 1, Gent have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Dender and Gent last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 March 2026: Dender 1-3 Gent.
Who has won more matches between Dender and Gent?
Gent have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Gent see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dender 50%, Gent 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Dender) and 53% (Gent).
On the defensive side: Gent in 32%; Dender have failed to score in 35% of games; Gent in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dender home games / Gent away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dender vs Gent Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dender and Gent matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Dender's recent matches and 47% of Gent's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dender and Gent matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Dender's recent games and 53% of Gent's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dender and Gent matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Dender's recent matches and 59% of Gent's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gent cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Dender.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gent beat Dender 1-3 at Dender Football Complex, Regular Season - 30, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 1.42 xG and Gent 1.84 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Gent outscored their 1.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 0.91 / defence 1.35 against Gent attack 1.07 / defence 1.21, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dender 30% | Draw 23% | Gent 48%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 54%, Gent 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dender's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Gent's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dender 0.93 PPG, Gent 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gent win broke the near-deadlock. Dender (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gent (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.