Dender 2-2 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dender vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Charleroi travel to Dender Football Complex to take on Dender in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 17:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dender stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Dender at home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Charleroi — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Charleroi have gone 4W 0D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Charleroi are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Dender, 3 for Charleroi and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.6 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 30 Aug 2025, ended Dender 1–3 Charleroi — a Charleroi win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Dender in-play tendencies (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Charleroi in-play tendencies (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dender 57% versus Charleroi 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dender 54% | Charleroi 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Dender surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Charleroi have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dender 1.01 xG and Charleroi 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dender attack 0.830 / defence 1.330 | Charleroi attack 1.032 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.296. Dender's defence rating of 1.330 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Charleroi's projected output up. Data: built from Dender's last 57 games and Charleroi's last 57.
Result probabilities: Dender 21% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 55%. Fair-value odds: Dender 4.77 | Draw 4.14 | Charleroi 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Charleroi (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dender 60% (last 10 home games) | Charleroi 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dender vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 28 | Venue: Dender Football Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 17:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dender 21% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Dender 1.01 / Charleroi 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Dender attack 0.830 / def 1.330 | Charleroi attack 1.032 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Dender xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Charleroi xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dender vs Charleroi FAQs
What time does Dender vs Charleroi kick off?
Dender vs Charleroi kicked off at 17:15 UK time on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Dender Football Complex.
What was the final score in Dender vs Charleroi?
Dender 2 - 2 Charleroi.
Where is Dender vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Dender Football Complex.
What competition is Dender vs Charleroi part of?
Dender vs Charleroi is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 28) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Dender vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Dender a 21% chance of winning, Charleroi a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dender vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Dender and Charleroi will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dender vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dender's attack rating (0.83) and Charleroi's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Dender's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dender's last 57 games and Charleroi's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
21%
4.77
24%
4.14
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Dender xG
Total xG
2.79
1.78
Charleroi xG
4.77
21%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
17%
5.92
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
4%
28.26
20%
5.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dender vs Charleroi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dender vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Dender and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Dender and 1.78 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Dender vs Charleroi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dender's recent record stands at 14W 21D 32L from 67 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 26W 16D 25L across 67 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Charleroi by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dender heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dender have managed 8W 11D 14L from their last 33 home games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 10W 7D 16L across their last 33 away games, a 1.12 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Dender are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.39 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dender
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
Dender (Home) vs Charleroi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dender
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Dender vs Charleroi Form FAQs
What form are Dender and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Dender have gone 14W 21D 32L in their last 67 games (0.94 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 26W 16D 25L in their last 67 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dender at home or Charleroi away?
Charleroi's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dender at home: 1.06 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2024. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Feb 2025, when Charleroi won Charleroi 5-0 Dender.
Dender's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Dender
1
Draws
3
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Dender vs Charleroi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and Charleroi?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Dender have won 2, Charleroi have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Dender and Charleroi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: Dender 2-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Dender and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dender 48%, Charleroi 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Dender) and 48% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Dender keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Dender have failed to score in 36% of games; Charleroi in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dender home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dender vs Charleroi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dender and Charleroi matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Dender's recent matches and 54% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dender and Charleroi matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Dender's recent games and 48% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dender and Charleroi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Dender's recent matches and 70% of Charleroi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dender and Charleroi share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dender Football Complex, Regular Season - 28, as Dender and Charleroi drew 2-2 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 1.01 xG and Charleroi 1.78 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Dender beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 0.83 / defence 1.33 against Charleroi attack 1.03 / defence 0.95, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dender 21% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 55%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 54%, Charleroi 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dender's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Charleroi's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Charleroi arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dender (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.