Charleroi 0-2 OH Leuven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Charleroi face OH Leuven.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Pays de Charleroi plays host to Charleroi versus OH Leuven in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 29). Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Charleroi have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
OH Leuven (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, OH Leuven have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Charleroi, 0.90 for OH Leuven — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Charleroi, 2 for OH Leuven and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 27 Jul 2025, ended Charleroi 2–2 OH Leuven — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 68 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
OH Leuven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 68 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 56% versus OH Leuven 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 47% | OH Leuven 38%). Note also that OH Leuven surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Charleroi recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 41% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.78 xG and OH Leuven 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.127 / defence 1.179 | OH Leuven attack 0.893 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.281. OH Leuven's defence rating of 1.214 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Charleroi's projected output up. Data: built from Charleroi's last 58 games and OH Leuven's last 58.
Result probabilities: Charleroi 48% | Draw 23% | OH Leuven 29%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.10 | Draw 4.27 | OH Leuven 3.45. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.78 / 1.35) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Charleroi 50% (last 10 home games) | OH Leuven 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 29 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 48% | Draw 23% | OH Leuven 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Charleroi 1.78 / OH Leuven 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.127 / def 1.179 | OH Leuven attack 0.893 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.35
OH Leuven xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charleroi vs OH Leuven FAQs
What time does Charleroi vs OH Leuven kick off?
Charleroi vs OH Leuven kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Charleroi 0 - 2 OH Leuven.
Where is Charleroi vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs OH Leuven part of?
Charleroi vs OH Leuven is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 29) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 48% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Charleroi and OH Leuven will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Charleroi vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 1.13x the league average against OH Leuven's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — OH Leuven's attack (0.89x) against Charleroi's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from Charleroi's last 58 games and OH Leuven's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
48%
2.10
23%
4.27
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Charleroi xG
Total xG
3.13
1.35
OH Leuven xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
12%
8.10
5%
20.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.5 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charleroi vs OH Leuven Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Charleroi and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.35 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 68 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 26W 17D 25L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
OH Leuven's form line: 16W 25D 27L from 68 games, 1.07 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Charleroi against 1.07 for OH Leuven. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.64 PPG from their last 33 home games (15W 9D 9L).
On the road, OH Leuven have gone 6W 9D 18L from their last 33 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Charleroi are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Current Season
OH Leuven
Current Season
Charleroi (Home) vs OH Leuven (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charleroi
Current Season
OH Leuven
Current Season
❓ Charleroi vs OH Leuven Form FAQs
What form are Charleroi and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 26W 17D 25L in their last 68 games (1.40 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 16W 25D 27L in their last 68 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or OH Leuven away?
Charleroi's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.64 PPG; OH Leuven away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Charleroi and OH Leuven, the earliest from February 2024. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against OH Leuven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Charleroi
4
Draws
3
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Charleroi vs OH Leuven H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and OH Leuven?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Charleroi have won 3, OH Leuven have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and OH Leuven last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: Charleroi 3-1 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 54%, OH Leuven 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Charleroi) and 42% (OH Leuven).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; OH Leuven in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charleroi vs OH Leuven Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charleroi and OH Leuven matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Charleroi's recent matches and 48% of OH Leuven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Charleroi and OH Leuven matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Charleroi's recent games and 42% of OH Leuven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and OH Leuven matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Charleroi's recent matches and 67% of OH Leuven's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
OH Leuven cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OH Leuven beat Charleroi 0-2 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 29, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.78 xG and OH Leuven 1.35 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Charleroi fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.13 / defence 1.18 against OH Leuven attack 0.89 / defence 1.21, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 48% | Draw 23% | OH Leuven 29%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual OH Leuven win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 47%, OH Leuven 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
OH Leuven's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.40 PPG, OH Leuven 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OH Leuven win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. OH Leuven (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.