Charleroi 1-4 Club Brugge KV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Club Brugge KV (43%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Charleroi face Club Brugge KV.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Club Brugge KV travel to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to take on Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 January 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Charleroi stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Charleroi have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Charleroi are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Club Brugge KV — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Club Brugge KV's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Club Brugge KV are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Club Brugge KV have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Charleroi.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended Charleroi 2–4 Club Brugge KV — a Club Brugge KV win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Club Brugge KV have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Charleroi in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Club Brugge KV in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 59% versus Club Brugge KV 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 56% | Club Brugge KV 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Charleroi surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Club Brugge KV have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.38 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.106 / defence 1.190 | Club Brugge KV attack 1.245 / defence 0.793. League average goals — home 1.579 / away 1.178. Club Brugge KV bring a tight defence (rating 0.793, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Charleroi's projected output down. Club Brugge KV have an above-average attack rating of 1.245, which lifts their away xG to 1.75. Data: built from Charleroi's last 54 games and Club Brugge KV's last 55.
Result probabilities: Charleroi 28% | Draw 29% | Club Brugge KV 43%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 3.58 | Draw 3.50 | Club Brugge KV 2.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.38 / 1.75) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Club Brugge KV are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Club Brugge KV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Charleroi's last 10 home games and Club Brugge KV's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Charleroi 90% (last 10 home games) | Club Brugge KV 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 22 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 27 January 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 28% | Draw 29% | Club Brugge KV 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Charleroi 1.38 / Club Brugge KV 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.106 / def 1.190 | Club Brugge KV attack 1.245 / def 0.793 | league avg home 1.579 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Club Brugge KV (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Club Brugge KV xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV FAQs
What time does Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV kick off?
Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV?
Charleroi 1 - 4 Club Brugge KV.
Where is Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV part of?
Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 22) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 28% chance of winning, Club Brugge KV a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Club Brugge KV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Charleroi and Club Brugge KV will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (1.11) and Club Brugge KV's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Club Brugge KV's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Charleroi's last 54 games and Club Brugge KV's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Club Brugge KV Win
28%
3.58
29%
3.50
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Charleroi xG
Total xG
3.13
1.75
Club Brugge KV xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
17%
5.73
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
5%
20.52
11%
9.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Club Brugge KV expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.75 for Club Brugge KV, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charleroi come into this having played 54 games, going 19W 12D 23L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Club Brugge KV sit at 1.59 PPG from 54 outings (23W 17D 14L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.28 PPG, Club Brugge KV on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Charleroi's home form reads 12W 5D 9L across their last 26 home games, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Club Brugge KV have taken 1.19 points per game from their last 26 away games (8W 7D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Club Brugge KV's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Charleroi are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Club Brugge KV are on 1.76 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Club Brugge KV in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Club Brugge KV
Blended
Charleroi (Home) vs Club Brugge KV (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charleroi
Blended
Club Brugge KV
Blended
❓ Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV Form FAQs
What form are Charleroi and Club Brugge KV in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 19W 12D 23L in their last 54 games (1.28 PPG), while Club Brugge KV have gone 23W 17D 14L in their last 54 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Club Brugge KV away?
Charleroi's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.58 PPG; Club Brugge KV away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Club Brugge KV been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Club Brugge KV in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 1 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Club Brugge KV have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Jan 2024, when Club Brugge KV won Charleroi 1-4 Club Brugge KV.
Charleroi's record when hosting Club Brugge KV specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Charleroi
2
Draws
8
Club Brugge KV
Recent Meetings
❓ Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Club Brugge KV?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Charleroi have won 0, Club Brugge KV have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Club Brugge KV last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 March 2026: Charleroi 1-2 Club Brugge KV.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Club Brugge KV?
Club Brugge KV have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Club Brugge KV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 69%, Club Brugge KV 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Charleroi) and 58% (Club Brugge KV). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Club Brugge KV in 31%; Club Brugge KV in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Club Brugge KV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charleroi and Club Brugge KV matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Charleroi's games and 50% of Club Brugge KV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Charleroi and Club Brugge KV matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Charleroi's matches and 58% of Club Brugge KV's.
Do Charleroi and Club Brugge KV matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Charleroi's recent matches and 81% of Club Brugge KV's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Club Brugge KV run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Club Brugge KV beat Charleroi 1-4 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 22, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.38 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.75 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Club Brugge KV outscored their 1.75 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.11 / defence 1.19 against Club Brugge KV attack 1.25 / defence 0.79, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 28% | Draw 29% | Club Brugge KV 43%, with Club Brugge KV to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 56%, Club Brugge KV 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Club Brugge KV's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.28 PPG, Club Brugge KV 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Club Brugge KV win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Club Brugge KV (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.