Anderlecht 2-2 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Anderlecht at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Anderlecht face Union St. Gilloise.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Union St. Gilloise travel to Lotto Park to take on Anderlecht in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 January 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Anderlecht stand at 6W 4D 0L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Anderlecht have posted 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Union St. Gilloise have recorded 8W 2D 0L — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Union St. Gilloise's away record over their last 10 away games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Anderlecht 2.20 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 2.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Anderlecht's games and 60% of Union St. Gilloise's (from Anderlecht's last 10 home games and Union St. Gilloise's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Anderlecht trading profile (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Anderlecht 59% and Union St. Gilloise 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 52% | Union St. Gilloise 67%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Anderlecht surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Union St. Gilloise have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 1.56 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 1.229 / defence 0.910 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.332 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.185. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack rating of 1.332, which lifts their away xG to 1.44. Data: built from Anderlecht's last 54 games and Union St. Gilloise's last 55.
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 38% | Draw 29% | Union St. Gilloise 33%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 2.62 | Draw 3.43 | Union St. Gilloise 3.07. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.56 / 1.44) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Anderlecht as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Anderlecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Anderlecht's last 10 home games and Union St. Gilloise's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Anderlecht 80% (last 10 home games) | Union St. Gilloise 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 22 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Sunday 28 January 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 38% | Draw 29% | Union St. Gilloise 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Anderlecht 1.56 / Union St. Gilloise 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 1.229 / def 0.910 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.332 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.570 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Union St. Gilloise xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise FAQs
What time does Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 28 January 2024 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Anderlecht 2 - 2 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 22) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 38% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Anderlecht's attack at 1.23x the league average against Union St. Gilloise's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Anderlecht's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Anderlecht's last 54 games and Union St. Gilloise's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
38%
2.62
29%
3.43
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
3.00
1.44
Union St. Gilloise xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
9%
11.01
7%
14.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.2 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Anderlecht and 1.44 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Anderlecht's recent record stands at 25W 14D 15L from 54 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 37W 10D 7L across 54 games — 2.24 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Anderlecht heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Anderlecht have managed 13W 6D 7L from their last 26 home games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 17W 7D 2L across their last 26 away games, a 2.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Anderlecht are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.09 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise in 69%.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
Anderlecht (Home) vs Union St. Gilloise (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Anderlecht
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise Form FAQs
What form are Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 25W 14D 15L in their last 54 games (1.65 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 37W 10D 7L in their last 54 (2.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 1.73 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from May 2024. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Union St. Gilloise have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 May 2026, when Union St. Gilloise won Union St. Gilloise 5-1 Anderlecht.
Anderlecht's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Anderlecht
2
Draws
7
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Anderlecht have won 1, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Union St. Gilloise 3-0 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Anderlecht at 65%, Union St. Gilloise at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Anderlecht and 62% for Union St. Gilloise. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Anderlecht's games and 77% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Anderlecht's matches and 62% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Anderlecht's recent matches and 88% of Union St. Gilloise's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 22, as Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise drew 2-2 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.56 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.44 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.23 / defence 0.91 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.33 / defence 0.81, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 38% | Draw 29% | Union St. Gilloise 33%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 52%, Union St. Gilloise 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.65. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.