Charleroi 1-0 AS Eupen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs AS Eupen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charleroi host AS Eupen at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 31 January 2024 at 17:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Charleroi are significantly better at Stade du Pays de Charleroi than their overall form suggests.
AS Eupen — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AS Eupen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Eupen away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Charleroi at 0.80 PPG versus AS Eupen's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Charleroi hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 1 for AS Eupen, with 0 draws in between.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with AS Eupen winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Charleroi and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Charleroi in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
AS Eupen in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 60% versus AS Eupen 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 56% | AS Eupen 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.89 xG and AS Eupen 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.062 / defence 1.337 | AS Eupen attack 0.729 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.226. Data: 55 Charleroi games / 56 AS Eupen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 51% | Draw 27% | AS Eupen 22%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | AS Eupen 4.55. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 90% | AS Eupen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs AS Eupen | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 Jan 2024, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 51% | Draw 27% | AS Eupen 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Charleroi 1.89 / AS Eupen 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.062 / def 1.337 | AS Eupen attack 0.729 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.625 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.20
AS Eupen xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs AS Eupen kick off?
Charleroi vs AS Eupen kicked off at 17:45 on Wednesday 31 January 2024 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs AS Eupen?
Charleroi 1 - 0 AS Eupen.
Where is Charleroi vs AS Eupen being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs AS Eupen part of?
Charleroi vs AS Eupen is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs AS Eupen?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 51% chance of winning, AS Eupen a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs AS Eupen?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Charleroi and AS Eupen will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs AS Eupen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and AS Eupen?
Record (5 meetings): Charleroi 4W | Draws 0 | AS Eupen 1W.
What form are Charleroi and AS Eupen in?
Charleroi (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. AS Eupen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 1.06x the league average against AS Eupen's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AS Eupen's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
51%
1.95
27%
3.72
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Charleroi xG
Total xG
3.09
1.20
AS Eupen xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
15%
6.62
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
3%
30.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.3 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs AS Eupen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Charleroi and AS Eupen expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.20 for AS Eupen, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs AS Eupen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 19W 12D 24L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Eupen's form line: 13W 10D 32L from 55 games, 0.89 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. The sample for AS Eupen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.25 PPG, AS Eupen on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.52 PPG from 27 outings (12W 5D 10L).
On the road, AS Eupen have gone 6W 4D 17L from 27 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Charleroi are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; AS Eupen are on 1.13 scored and 2.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charleroi have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
AS Eupen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and AS Eupen in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 19W 12D 24L in their last 55 games (1.25 PPG), while AS Eupen have gone 13W 10D 32L in their last 55 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or AS Eupen away?
Charleroi's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.52 PPG; AS Eupen away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Charleroi go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Dec 2021, when Charleroi won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charleroi's record when hosting AS Eupen specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Charleroi
0
Draws
1
AS Eupen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and AS Eupen?
From 8 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 7, AS Eupen have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and AS Eupen last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2024, when AS Eupen 1-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and AS Eupen?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 70%, AS Eupen 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Charleroi) and 52% (AS Eupen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AS Eupen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / AS Eupen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play AS Eupen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Charleroi's games and 48% of AS Eupen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs AS Eupen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Charleroi's matches and 52% of AS Eupen's.
Do Charleroi and AS Eupen tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, AS Eupen in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charleroi edge out AS Eupen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat AS Eupen 1-0 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 23, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.89 xG and AS Eupen 1.20 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Charleroi fell 0.9 short of their projected output. AS Eupen landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.06 / defence 1.34 against AS Eupen attack 0.73 / defence 1.09, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 51% | Draw 27% | AS Eupen 22%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 56%, AS Eupen 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
AS Eupen's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.25 PPG, AS Eupen 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. AS Eupen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.