Antwerp 4-1 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antwerp at 62% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Antwerp face Charleroi.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Antwerp and Charleroi meet at Bosuilstadion in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 21). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 January 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form
Antwerp (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Antwerp's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 4D 0L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Antwerp are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Charleroi's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 0W 3D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Antwerp, 1 for Charleroi and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended Antwerp 2–3 Charleroi — a Charleroi win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Antwerp — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Charleroi — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 42% versus Charleroi 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 47% | Charleroi 55%). Note also that Charleroi surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Antwerp recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 47% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.74 xG and Charleroi 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.198 / defence 0.818 | Charleroi attack 0.625 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.201. Charleroi's attack rating of 0.625 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.61. Data: built from Antwerp's last 54 games and Charleroi's last 53.
Result probabilities: Antwerp 62% | Draw 27% | Charleroi 10%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 1.60 | Draw 3.69 | Charleroi 9.58. The model has a clear lean to Antwerp (62%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antwerp as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Antwerp 40% (last 10 home games) | Charleroi 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 21 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 January 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 62% | Draw 27% | Charleroi 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Antwerp 1.74 / Charleroi 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.198 / def 0.818 | Charleroi attack 0.625 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Charleroi xG
40%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Antwerp vs Charleroi FAQs
What time does Antwerp vs Charleroi kick off?
Antwerp vs Charleroi kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 21 January 2024 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Antwerp 4 - 1 Charleroi.
Where is Antwerp vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Charleroi part of?
Antwerp vs Charleroi is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 21) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 62% chance of winning, Charleroi a 10% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Antwerp and Charleroi will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Antwerp vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Antwerp's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (0.62x) against Antwerp's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.61.
These ratings are built from Antwerp's last 54 games and Charleroi's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.4%), 1-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
62%
1.60
27%
3.69
10%
9.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Antwerp xG
Total xG
2.35
0.61
Charleroi xG
1.60
62%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
9.58
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
54%
1.85
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
34%
2.95
2%
54.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 10.1 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.4 | 8.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Antwerp vs Charleroi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Antwerp and 0.61 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Antwerp's recent record stands at 26W 16D 11L from 53 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 22L across 53 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-L-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Antwerp by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Charleroi heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Antwerp have managed 17W 7D 2L from their last 26 home games — 2.23 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.77 PPG overall — Antwerp are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Charleroi's away record stands at 7W 7D 12L across their last 26 away games, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antwerp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Antwerp are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.25 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
Antwerp (Home) vs Charleroi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Antwerp
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Antwerp vs Charleroi Form FAQs
What form are Antwerp and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 26W 16D 11L in their last 53 games (1.77 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 19W 12D 22L in their last 53 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Charleroi away?
Antwerp's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 2.23 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Antwerp or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Charleroi in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Antwerp and Charleroi, the earliest from October 2023. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won Antwerp 4-1 Charleroi on 21 Jan 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antwerp have gone 2W 0D 4L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Antwerp
1
Draws
6
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Antwerp vs Charleroi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Charleroi?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Antwerp have won 3, Charleroi have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Charleroi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Antwerp 3-0 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 42%, Charleroi 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Antwerp) and 50% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Antwerp keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Charleroi in 35%; Charleroi in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Antwerp vs Charleroi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Antwerp and Charleroi matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Antwerp's recent matches and 50% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Antwerp and Charleroi matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Antwerp's recent games and 50% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antwerp and Charleroi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Antwerp's recent matches and 62% of Charleroi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Antwerp run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat Charleroi 4-1 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.74 xG and Charleroi 0.61 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Antwerp beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.20 / defence 0.82 against Charleroi attack 0.62 / defence 0.90, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 62% | Draw 27% | Charleroi 10%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 47%, Charleroi 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Charleroi's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Antwerp arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Antwerp (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm. Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.