AS Eupen 3-1 OH Leuven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates OH Leuven at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Eupen vs OH Leuven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees OH Leuven travel to Stadion am Kehrweg to take on AS Eupen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 March 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Eupen stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
AS Eupen's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stadion am Kehrweg this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — AS Eupen are significantly better at Stadion am Kehrweg than their overall form suggests.
OH Leuven — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
OH Leuven away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. OH Leuven are 1.70 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for AS Eupen, 0 for OH Leuven and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 4–1 with AS Eupen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
AS Eupen in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
OH Leuven in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AS Eupen 55% and OH Leuven 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Eupen 55% | OH Leuven 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Eupen 1.04 xG and OH Leuven 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Eupen attack 0.685 / defence 1.404 | OH Leuven attack 0.908 / defence 1.345. League average goals — home 1.125 / away 1.343. AS Eupen's attack strength of 0.685 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. OH Leuven bring a strong defensive rating of 1.345 — this is suppressing AS Eupen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 AS Eupen games / 29 OH Leuven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Eupen 23% | Draw 24% | OH Leuven 53%. Fair-value odds: AS Eupen 4.35 | Draw 4.17 | OH Leuven 1.89. OH Leuven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates OH Leuven as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OH Leuven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AS Eupen 50% | OH Leuven 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Eupen vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion am Kehrweg • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Eupen 23% | Draw 24% | OH Leuven 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG AS Eupen 1.04 / OH Leuven 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: AS Eupen attack 0.685 / def 1.404 | OH Leuven attack 0.908 / def 1.345 | league avg home 1.125 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: OH Leuven (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
AS Eupen xG
Expected Goals
1.71
OH Leuven xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Eupen vs OH Leuven kick off?
AS Eupen vs OH Leuven kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Stadion am Kehrweg.
What was the final score in AS Eupen vs OH Leuven?
AS Eupen 3 - 1 OH Leuven.
Where is AS Eupen vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Stadion am Kehrweg.
What competition is AS Eupen vs OH Leuven part of?
AS Eupen vs OH Leuven is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win AS Eupen vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives AS Eupen a 23% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 53% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making OH Leuven the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Eupen vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both AS Eupen and OH Leuven will score (BTTS).
Will AS Eupen vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and OH Leuven?
Record (1 meetings): AS Eupen 1W | Draws 0 | OH Leuven 0W.
What form are AS Eupen and OH Leuven in?
AS Eupen (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. OH Leuven (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates AS Eupen's attack at 0.69x the league average against OH Leuven's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OH Leuven's attack versus AS Eupen's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OH Leuven Win
23%
4.42
24%
4.11
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
AS Eupen xG
Total xG
2.75
1.71
OH Leuven xG
4.42
23%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
18%
5.55
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
4%
24.49
19%
5.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Eupen vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are AS Eupen and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for AS Eupen and 1.71 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Eupen vs OH Leuven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AS Eupen's recent record stands at 7W 7D 15L from 29 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five.
OH Leuven, meanwhile, have gone 10W 10D 9L across 29 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours OH Leuven by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AS Eupen heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AS Eupen have managed 3W 3D 8L from 14 games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
OH Leuven's away record stands at 3W 6D 5L across 14 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
AS Eupen are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 1.52 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OH Leuven in 69%.
Last 29 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Eupen
Current Season
OH Leuven
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Eupen and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
AS Eupen have gone 7W 7D 15L in their last 29 games (0.97 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 10W 10D 9L in their last 29 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Eupen at home or OH Leuven away?
OH Leuven's away record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Eupen at home: 0.86 PPG; OH Leuven away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AS Eupen and OH Leuven runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2021, when AS Eupen won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AS Eupen's record when hosting OH Leuven specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
AS Eupen
1
Draws
1
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and OH Leuven?
From 6 meetings on record, AS Eupen have won 4, OH Leuven have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AS Eupen and OH Leuven last play each other?
They last met on 26 December 2023, when OH Leuven 3-0 AS Eupen.
Who has won more matches between AS Eupen and OH Leuven?
AS Eupen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Eupen 57%, OH Leuven 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (AS Eupen) and 64% (OH Leuven). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AS Eupen have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Eupen home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Eupen play OH Leuven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of AS Eupen's games and 71% of OH Leuven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AS Eupen vs OH Leuven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of AS Eupen's matches and 64% of OH Leuven's.
Do AS Eupen and OH Leuven tend to score early?
AS Eupen have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, OH Leuven in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Eupen cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over OH Leuven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Eupen beat OH Leuven 3-1 at Stadion am Kehrweg, Regular Season - 30, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.04 xG and OH Leuven 1.71 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. AS Eupen beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.69 / defence 1.40 against OH Leuven attack 0.91 / defence 1.34, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 23% | Draw 24% | OH Leuven 53%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a AS Eupen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 55%, OH Leuven 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Eupen's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
OH Leuven's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, OH Leuven arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with AS Eupen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AS Eupen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. OH Leuven (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.