Antwerp 2-1 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antwerp at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antwerp vs Beerschot VA encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 30 as Antwerp welcome Beerschot VA to Bosuilstadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 March 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Antwerp have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Antwerp's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Bosuilstadion this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Beerschot VA — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Beerschot VA's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Antwerp carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Antwerp, 0 for Beerschot VA and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with Antwerp winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Antwerp trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Beerschot VA trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 59% versus Beerschot VA 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 52% | Beerschot VA 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 2.11 xG and Beerschot VA 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.138 / defence 1.111 | Beerschot VA attack 0.611 / defence 1.646. League average goals — home 1.125 / away 1.359. Beerschot VA bring a strong defensive rating of 1.646 — this is suppressing Antwerp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Antwerp games / 29 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antwerp 65% | Draw 20% | Beerschot VA 15%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | Beerschot VA 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Antwerp (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antwerp are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Antwerp 50% | Beerschot VA 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 65% | Draw 20% | Beerschot VA 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 53% | xG Antwerp 2.11 / Beerschot VA 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.138 / def 1.111 | Beerschot VA attack 0.611 / def 1.646 | league avg home 1.125 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Beerschot VA xG
53%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs Beerschot VA kick off?
Antwerp vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Beerschot VA?
Antwerp 2 - 1 Beerschot VA.
Where is Antwerp vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Beerschot VA part of?
Antwerp vs Beerschot VA is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 65% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Antwerp and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Beerschot VA?
Record (1 meetings): Antwerp 1W | Draws 0 | Beerschot VA 0W.
What form are Antwerp and Beerschot VA in?
Antwerp (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Beerschot VA (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Antwerp's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Beerschot VA's defensive record (1.65x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.11. The same calculation in reverse, Beerschot VA's attack versus Antwerp's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
65%
1.55
20%
5.02
15%
6.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Antwerp xG
Total xG
3.03
0.92
Beerschot VA xG
1.55
65%
Home win
5.02
20%
Draw
6.46
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
12%
8.23
Win to Nil
26%
3.89
2%
53.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Antwerp and 0.92 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Beerschot VA?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Antwerp come into this having played 29 games, going 16W 5D 8L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Beerschot VA sit at 0.55 PPG from 29 outings (4W 4D 21L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Antwerp carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.28 PPG clear of Beerschot VA — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Antwerp's home form reads 7W 3D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Beerschot VA have taken 0.21 points per game from 14 outings (0W 3D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antwerp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Antwerp are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.00 scored and 2.10 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Current Season
Beerschot VA
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 16W 5D 8L in their last 29 games (1.83 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 4W 4D 21L in their last 29 (0.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Beerschot VA away?
Antwerp's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 1.71 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 0.21 PPG.
Have Antwerp or Beerschot VA been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Beerschot VA in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Sep 2024, when Antwerp won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antwerp's record when hosting Beerschot VA specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Antwerp
1
Draws
0
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Beerschot VA?
From 4 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 3, Beerschot VA have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2025, when Beerschot VA 1-1 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Beerschot VA?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antwerp see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 57%, Beerschot VA 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Antwerp) and 57% (Beerschot VA). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play Beerschot VA?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Antwerp's games and 64% of Beerschot VA's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antwerp vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Antwerp's matches and 57% of Beerschot VA's.
Do Antwerp and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antwerp edge out Beerschot VA 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat Beerschot VA 2-1 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 2.11 xG and Beerschot VA 0.92 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.14 / defence 1.11 against Beerschot VA attack 0.61 / defence 1.65, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 65% | Draw 20% | Beerschot VA 15%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 52%, Beerschot VA 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Antwerp arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.55. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.