Gent 2-1 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gent at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gent vs Zulte Waregem encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gent host Zulte Waregem at GHELAMCO-arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 March 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gent — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Gent's home record at GHELAMCO-arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Zulte Waregem have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Zulte Waregem's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Gent are in the better shape of the two on current Jupiler Pro League data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Gent, 0 for Zulte Waregem and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Gent winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Gent trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Zulte Waregem trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gent 45% versus Zulte Waregem 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gent 45% | Zulte Waregem 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gent 2.37 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gent attack 1.192 / defence 1.023 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.747 / defence 1.769. League average goals — home 1.125 / away 1.343. Zulte Waregem bring a strong defensive rating of 1.769 — this is suppressing Gent's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Gent games / 29 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gent 67% | Draw 18% | Zulte Waregem 15%. Fair-value odds: Gent 1.49 | Draw 5.56 | Zulte Waregem 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Gent (67%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gent at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.40 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Gent 50% | Zulte Waregem 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gent vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: GHELAMCO-arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gent 67% | Draw 18% | Zulte Waregem 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 58% | xG Gent 2.37 / Zulte Waregem 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Gent attack 1.192 / def 1.023 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.747 / def 1.769 | league avg home 1.125 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Gent (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Gent xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Zulte Waregem xG
58%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gent vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
Gent vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at GHELAMCO-arena.
What was the final score in Gent vs Zulte Waregem?
Gent 2 - 1 Zulte Waregem.
Where is Gent vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at GHELAMCO-arena.
What competition is Gent vs Zulte Waregem part of?
Gent vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Gent vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives Gent a 67% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 15% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gent vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Gent and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will Gent vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Zulte Waregem?
Record (1 meetings): Gent 1W | Draws 0 | Zulte Waregem 0W.
What form are Gent and Zulte Waregem in?
Gent (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gent's attack rating (1.19) and Zulte Waregem's defence rating (1.77), the model arrives at 2.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zulte Waregem's attack versus Gent's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.4%), 1-1 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
67%
1.49
18%
5.46
15%
6.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Gent xG
Total xG
3.40
1.03
Zulte Waregem xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.46
18%
Draw
6.85
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
9%
10.73
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
1%
73.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gent vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Gent and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Gent and 1.03 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Gent vs Zulte Waregem?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gent's recent record stands at 14W 7D 8L from 29 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Zulte Waregem, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 14L across 29 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gent by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Zulte Waregem heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gent have managed 8W 3D 3L from 14 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zulte Waregem's away record stands at 3W 4D 7L across 14 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gent come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gent are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.31 scored and 2.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem in 66%.
Defensively: Gent have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gent
Current Season
Zulte Waregem
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gent and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
Gent have gone 14W 7D 8L in their last 29 games (1.69 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 7W 8D 14L in their last 29 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gent at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Gent's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gent at home: 1.93 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Gent or Zulte Waregem been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gent have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Zulte Waregem in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gent and Zulte Waregem runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Mar 2023, when Gent won 2-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gent's record when hosting Zulte Waregem specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Gent
0
Draws
1
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Zulte Waregem?
From 6 meetings on record, Gent have won 5, Zulte Waregem have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gent and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Gent 2-0 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Gent and Zulte Waregem?
Gent have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gent 57%, Zulte Waregem 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Gent and 64% for Zulte Waregem. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gent home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gent play Zulte Waregem?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Gent's games and 64% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gent vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Gent's matches and 64% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do Gent and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
Gent have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gent edge out Zulte Waregem 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gent beat Zulte Waregem 2-1 at GHELAMCO-arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 2.37 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.03 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.19 / defence 1.02 against Zulte Waregem attack 0.75 / defence 1.77, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gent 67% | Draw 18% | Zulte Waregem 15%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 45%, Zulte Waregem 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gent's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Gent arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.