Union St. Gilloise 0-0 AS Eupen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AS Eupen make the trip to Stade Joseph Mariën to face Union St. Gilloise in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 February 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Union St. Gilloise (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Union St. Gilloise at Stade Joseph Mariën this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
AS Eupen's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
AS Eupen's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Union St. Gilloise's 2.30 PPG return is 2.10 points per game ahead of AS Eupen's 0.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Union St. Gilloise lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 3–2 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Union St. Gilloise half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
AS Eupen half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 43% versus AS Eupen 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 61% | AS Eupen 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.74 xG and AS Eupen 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.046 / defence 0.909 | AS Eupen attack 0.684 / defence 1.452. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 1.383. AS Eupen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.452 — this is suppressing Union St. Gilloise's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Union St. Gilloise games / 28 AS Eupen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 58% | Draw 23% | AS Eupen 18%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | AS Eupen 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 50% | AS Eupen 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 58% | Draw 23% | AS Eupen 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.74 / AS Eupen 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.046 / def 0.909 | AS Eupen attack 0.684 / def 1.452 | league avg home 1.148 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.86
AS Eupen xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen?
Union St. Gilloise 0 - 0 AS Eupen.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 58% chance of winning, AS Eupen a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and AS Eupen will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and AS Eupen?
Record (1 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 1W | Draws 0 | AS Eupen 0W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and AS Eupen in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. AS Eupen (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 1.05x the league average against AS Eupen's defence at 1.45x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AS Eupen's attack (0.68x) against Union St. Gilloise's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
58%
1.71
23%
4.27
18%
5.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.60
0.86
AS Eupen xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
5.48
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
17%
5.72
Win to Nil
25%
4.05
3%
31.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.1 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and AS Eupen expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.86 for AS Eupen, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Union St. Gilloise come into this having played 28 games, going 20W 3D 5L for 2.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, AS Eupen sit at 0.96 PPG from 28 outings (7W 6D 15L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.29 PPG clear of AS Eupen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Union St. Gilloise's home form reads 9W 1D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Eupen have taken 1.07 points per game from 14 outings (4W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.21 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; AS Eupen are on 1.18 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
AS Eupen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and AS Eupen in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 20W 3D 5L in their last 28 games (2.25 PPG), while AS Eupen have gone 7W 6D 15L in their last 28 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or AS Eupen away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.00 PPG; AS Eupen away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or AS Eupen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, AS Eupen in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 4-1 on 20 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union St. Gilloise have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against AS Eupen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Union St. Gilloise
1
Draws
0
AS Eupen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and AS Eupen?
From 6 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 5, AS Eupen have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and AS Eupen last play each other?
They last met on 23 December 2023, when AS Eupen 1-2 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and AS Eupen?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 43%, AS Eupen 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Union St. Gilloise and 64% for AS Eupen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; AS Eupen in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / AS Eupen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play AS Eupen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 57% of AS Eupen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 64% of AS Eupen's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and AS Eupen tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, AS Eupen in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Union St. Gilloise's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 29, as Union St. Gilloise and AS Eupen drew 0-0 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.74 xG and AS Eupen 0.86 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise fell 1.7 short of their projected output. AS Eupen landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.05 / defence 0.91 against AS Eupen attack 0.68 / defence 1.45, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 58% | Draw 23% | AS Eupen 18%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 61%, AS Eupen 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
AS Eupen's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. AS Eupen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.