AS Eupen 0-4 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Eupen vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Charleroi travel to Stadion am Kehrweg to take on AS Eupen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 December 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, AS Eupen have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AS Eupen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Eupen at Stadion am Kehrweg this season: 3W 3D 3L from 9 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — AS Eupen are significantly better at Stadion am Kehrweg than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Charleroi are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for AS Eupen, 1 for Charleroi and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 0–3 with Charleroi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
AS Eupen trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Charleroi trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AS Eupen 68% and Charleroi 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AS Eupen 68% | Charleroi 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Eupen 1.65 xG and Charleroi 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Eupen attack 0.951 / defence 1.127 | Charleroi attack 1.062 / defence 1.409. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.539. Charleroi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.409 — this is suppressing AS Eupen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 AS Eupen games / 19 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Eupen 35% | Draw 22% | Charleroi 43%. Fair-value odds: AS Eupen 2.86 | Draw 4.55 | Charleroi 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.49 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: AS Eupen 78% | Charleroi 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Eupen vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion am Kehrweg • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Dec 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Eupen 35% | Draw 22% | Charleroi 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG AS Eupen 1.65 / Charleroi 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: AS Eupen attack 0.951 / def 1.127 | Charleroi attack 1.062 / def 1.409 | league avg home 1.229 / away 1.539 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
AS Eupen xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Charleroi xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Eupen vs Charleroi kick off?
AS Eupen vs Charleroi kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 19 December 2021 at Stadion am Kehrweg.
What was the final score in AS Eupen vs Charleroi?
AS Eupen 0 - 4 Charleroi.
Where is AS Eupen vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Stadion am Kehrweg.
What competition is AS Eupen vs Charleroi part of?
AS Eupen vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win AS Eupen vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives AS Eupen a 35% chance of winning, Charleroi a 43% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Eupen vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both AS Eupen and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will AS Eupen vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Charleroi?
Record (1 meetings): AS Eupen 0W | Draws 0 | Charleroi 1W.
What form are AS Eupen and Charleroi in?
AS Eupen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Charleroi (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AS Eupen's attack rating (0.95) and Charleroi's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus AS Eupen's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
35%
2.87
22%
4.50
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
AS Eupen xG
Total xG
3.49
1.84
Charleroi xG
2.87
35%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
16%
6.31
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
6%
18.09
8%
12.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Eupen vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are AS Eupen and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for AS Eupen and 1.84 for Charleroi, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Eupen vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AS Eupen come into this having played 19 games, going 7W 4D 8L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. The sample for AS Eupen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Charleroi sit at 1.68 PPG from 19 outings (9W 5D 5L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AS Eupen on 1.32 PPG, Charleroi on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
AS Eupen's home form reads 3W 3D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Charleroi have taken 1.67 points per game from 9 outings (4W 3D 2L).
The Goals Picture
AS Eupen are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.79 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AS Eupen have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Eupen
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Eupen and Charleroi in coming into this match?
AS Eupen have gone 7W 4D 8L in their last 19 games (1.32 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 9W 5D 5L in their last 19 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Eupen at home or Charleroi away?
Charleroi's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Eupen at home: 1.33 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.67 PPG.
Have AS Eupen or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Eupen have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Charleroi in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AS Eupen and Charleroi runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charleroi have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Dec 2021, when Charleroi won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AS Eupen's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
AS Eupen
0
Draws
7
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Charleroi?
From 8 meetings on record, AS Eupen have won 1, Charleroi have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AS Eupen and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2024, when AS Eupen 1-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between AS Eupen and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — AS Eupen at 78%, Charleroi at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for AS Eupen and 89% for Charleroi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Eupen home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Eupen play Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of AS Eupen's games and 78% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AS Eupen vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of AS Eupen's matches and 89% of Charleroi's.
Do AS Eupen and Charleroi tend to score early?
AS Eupen have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Charleroi run riot with a 0-4 hammering of AS Eupen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat AS Eupen 0-4 at Stadion am Kehrweg, Regular Season - 20, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.65 xG and Charleroi 1.84 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. AS Eupen fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Charleroi outscored their 1.84 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.95 / defence 1.13 against Charleroi attack 1.06 / defence 1.41, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 35% | Draw 22% | Charleroi 43%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 68%, Charleroi 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Eupen's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Charleroi's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Eupen 1.32 PPG, Charleroi 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. AS Eupen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.