Seraing United 0-2 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kortrijk at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Seraing United vs Kortrijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kortrijk make the trip to Stade du Pairay to face Seraing United in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Friday 17 December 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Seraing United's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Seraing United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Seraing United's home record at Stade du Pairay: 4W 1D 4L from 9 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.44 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game.
Kortrijk (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Kortrijk have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Seraing United against 1.40 for Kortrijk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Seraing United lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2021, ended 0–2 with Kortrijk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Seraing United half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Kortrijk half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Seraing United 47% versus Kortrijk 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Seraing United 68% | Kortrijk 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seraing United 1.11 xG and Kortrijk 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seraing United attack 0.881 / defence 1.297 | Kortrijk attack 0.750 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.507. Data: 19 Seraing United games / 19 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Seraing United 29% | Draw 26% | Kortrijk 45%. Fair-value odds: Seraing United 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Kortrijk 2.22. Kortrijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kortrijk at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kortrijk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Seraing United 44% | Kortrijk 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seraing United vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade du Pairay • Kick-off: Friday 17 Dec 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seraing United 29% | Draw 26% | Kortrijk 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Seraing United 1.11 / Kortrijk 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Seraing United attack 0.881 / def 1.297 | Kortrijk attack 0.750 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.507 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Seraing United xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Kortrijk xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seraing United vs Kortrijk kick off?
Seraing United vs Kortrijk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 17 December 2021 at Stade du Pairay.
What was the final score in Seraing United vs Kortrijk?
Seraing United 0 - 2 Kortrijk.
Where is Seraing United vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pairay.
What competition is Seraing United vs Kortrijk part of?
Seraing United vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Seraing United vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Seraing United a 29% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Seraing United vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Seraing United and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will Seraing United vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seraing United and Kortrijk?
Record (1 meetings): Seraing United 0W | Draws 0 | Kortrijk 1W.
What form are Seraing United and Kortrijk in?
Seraing United (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Kortrijk (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Seraing United's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Kortrijk's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Kortrijk's attack (0.75x) against Seraing United's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
29%
3.48
26%
3.84
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Seraing United xG
Total xG
2.58
1.47
Kortrijk xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
7%
15.06
15%
6.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.1 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seraing United vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Seraing United and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Seraing United and 1.47 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Seraing United vs Kortrijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Seraing United's recent record stands at 6W 1D 12L from 19 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Seraing United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kortrijk, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 5L across 19 games — 1.47 PPG, with D-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kortrijk by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Seraing United heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Seraing United have managed 4W 1D 4L from 9 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Seraing United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Kortrijk's away record stands at 2W 4D 3L across 9 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Seraing United are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.26 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seraing United
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Seraing United and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Seraing United have gone 6W 1D 12L in their last 19 games (1.00 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 7W 7D 5L in their last 19 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Seraing United at home or Kortrijk away?
Seraing United's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Seraing United at home: 1.44 PPG; Kortrijk away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Seraing United or Kortrijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Seraing United have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Kortrijk in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Jupiler Pro League, Challenger Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Kortrijk have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Seraing United have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Kortrijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Seraing United
0
Draws
5
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seraing United and Kortrijk?
From 5 meetings on record, Seraing United have won 0, Kortrijk have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Seraing United and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when Kortrijk 1-0 Seraing United.
Who has won more matches between Seraing United and Kortrijk?
Kortrijk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Seraing United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Seraing United 44%, Kortrijk 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Seraing United) and 33% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: Seraing United keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Seraing United have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seraing United home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Seraing United play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Seraing United's recent matches and 56% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Seraing United vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Seraing United's recent games and 33% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Seraing United and Kortrijk tend to score early?
Seraing United have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kortrijk cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Seraing United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kortrijk beat Seraing United 0-2 at Stade du Pairay, Regular Season - 20, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seraing United 1.11 xG and Kortrijk 1.47 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Seraing United fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seraing United attack 0.88 / defence 1.30 against Kortrijk attack 0.75 / defence 1.03, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Seraing United 29% | Draw 26% | Kortrijk 45%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Seraing United 68%, Kortrijk 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Seraing United's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kortrijk's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Kortrijk arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Seraing United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Kortrijk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.